Blackjack Hand 12 or 13

Many gamblers who play blackjack on a regular basis don’t take the time to consider every possible total they can hold in their hand. Indeed, the cards can form numerous combinations, especially when more than one deck is used.

However, if players want to master the game and make the best possible choices every time, it is crucial to know how to proceed in the most difficult situations. They need to dedicate their time and determine their goals if they are to achieve the desired results. Gamblers who claim they play just for the thrill fail to understand that blackjack can be not only fun but also profitable.

• When Players Have Hand 12
• Two or Three as the Dealer’s Up Card
• When Players Have Hand 13
• Odds and Probabilities
• Conclusion

In this chapter, we will examine the two particular hands players can receive: 12 or 13. As already mentioned, it is important for gamblers to be familiar with absolutely every hand they can get because knowing its possible outcomes can help them make wiser choices. Even though one hand doesn’t determine the overall result of the game, it is essential to try to do your best every time.

When Players Have Hand 12

Regardless of the strategy players use, they always need to take into account their hand’s total value and the dealer’s upcard. Players can form such a hand with the following combinations: 2-10, 3-9, 2-8, 5-7, A-A, and 6-6. To find out what the best possible choice is, let’s consider the case where gamblers have a hand 12 against every possible upcard of the dealer.

Both hard 12 and hard 13 are losing hands for the player. How they are played depends on the strength of the dealer’s exposed card. The stronger the upcard, the more aggressive an approach players should adopt, and vice versa.

With a hard 12, you can split when you hold 6-6 or A-A, and hit or stand with the other card combinations that produce this total. Doubling is out of the question because it is anything but a good move with a hard 12.

The good news for blackjack rookies is that the optimal playing strategy for unpaired hard 12 (i.e. any hand that does not contain two cards of the same value) is not influenced by the playing conditions or the number of decks. The correct moves coincide across all blackjack variations, including European games that lack hole cards.

If the dealer’s upcard is 4, 5, or 6, gamblers should stand. If the dealer has any other card, gamblers should hit. The logic behind standing when the dealer shows 4 through 6 is that these upcards result in very high bust rates for the dealer. Unlike players who can decline additional cards on any total they deem fit, the dealer must hit until they reach their standing position of 17 or greater. This puts the dealer in a volatile position, increasing their probability of a bust.

Small cards 4 through 6 are the worst for the dealer as they bring the highest bust percentages. Assuming the dealer has peeked under their hole card and does not have a blackjack, their probability of busting with a 4 in a standard six-deck S17 game stands at 0.395805, or roughly 39.6% of the time.

The dealer probabilities of busting with a 5 and a 6 are even higher at 0.418406 (41.8%) and 0.422842 (42.3%). This is why you stand on your hard 12 versus small upcards 4 through 6, keeping your fingers crossed for a dealer bust, and hit against the other upcards because they improve the dealer’s situation.

The position of a player who holds a hard 12 is not enviable, either. In general, hard 12 through hard 16 are some of the lousiest hands you can get stuck with. These are inevitably long-term losers against most dealer upcards, no matter whether you choose to stand or hit. You can see this from the figures in the table below as estimated by gambling expert Michael Shackleford.

The example compares a 12 against a weak 6 and a strong dealer 10 in a common multi-deck variant where the dealer stands on soft 17. Nevertheless, hard 12 offers poor odds to the player regardless of what upcard they are up against. It makes sense that the best playing decision is the one that yields the lowest negative expectation for you.

2 or 3 as the Dealer’s Up Card

When the player’s hand totals 12 and the dealer’s upcard is either 2 or 3, they need to be extra cautious and remember how to proceed. In the worst-case scenario, players can draw a face card or a 10, which would inevitably cause them to bust.

The possibility of this unfortunate outcome is not very small either – four out of thirteen, or roughly 30% of the time. Players need to focus on the cards that will leave them with a strong hand – a 7, an 8, or a 9. If gamblers are lucky enough to get any of these, it guarantees them a total of at least 19, which is above the average winning hand of 18.5.

Moreover, the rest of the cards in the deck won’t result in an immediate loss for the players, so the bottom line is that they are not in the worst position with hand 12. Holding hard 15 or hard 16 is far worse, for example.

The trouble is most novices handle hard 12 against these two dealer upcards incorrectly. One of the biggest blunders a blackjack player can make is standing on 12 versus the dealer’s deuce. This stems from the fear of drawing a high card on the hard hand, which would result in a bust and an automatic loss.

Such players frequently abide by the Rule of 10. They make their decisions based on the assumption the dealer always has a ten-value card in the hole. Respectively, the reasoning is that the dealer would flip over a ten next to their deuce, draw another high card, and bust. The player stands rather than hits their 12 out of fear they would ‘take the dealer’s bust card’.

Unfortunately, there is no such thing, since the true odds favour hitting 12 versus 2. In reality, there are five card denominations (5 through 9) you can improve your total with versus four cards that would cause you to break your 12 with a hit (K, Q, J, and 10). The odds are clearly in favour of hitting, not standing.

Also important is the fact that the dealer is not in such a bad spot when starting with a deuce. The probability of them busting is estimated at 0.353504, or approximately 35% of the time in six-deck S17 games.

If we ignore the pushes, hitting the 12 against the deuce results in a win roughly 37% of the time and leads to a loss a little over 63% of the time. Assuming you are betting £1 on each hand, you will suffer net losses of approximately £26 every one hundred hands on average.

Meanwhile, standing on hard 12 results in a win roughly 35% of the time and leads to a loss around 65% of the time, giving you average net losses of £30 per one hundred rounds when we ignore the pushes. It is only natural for players to prefer hitting over standing on 12 against a deuce because it reduces their long-term losses.

The same tendencies and harmful reasoning are observed with novices who hold hard 12 against the dealer’s 3. They are too scared to hit, as basic strategy tells them to, so they choose to stand instead and lose more money in the long run. This is yet another terrible but unfortunately common decision.

The dealer is not as weak when starting with a 3, busting only 37.4% of the time. Basic strategy again recommends hitting in this case because this play cuts down your negative expectation, leading to lower long-term losses with your hard 12 vs. 3. The difference is minuscule, as you can see above, but things will add up over thousands of hands played.

As for hard 12 that contains 6-6 or A-A, we shall tackle these situations in more depth in individual articles. For now, it suffices to mention you should always split paired aces. The correct plays for 6-6 are influenced by playing conditions, and more particularly by the number of decks.

When Players Have Hand 13

Regardless of whether players have a hand 13, 14, 15, or 16, they should use the same strategy against the dealer upcard. This is very convenient, as players do not need to remember different moves when their hand totals any of the above-mentioned values. These four types of hands put the player in a very risky position, and it is crucial to remember how best to play them.

Now let’s focus on hand 13 in particular and see what the best move is. When gamblers find themselves in a situation where their hand totals 13 and the dealer’s upcard is from 2 through 6, they should stand. For all other dealer upcards, players need to hit, i.e., against stronger cards 7 through ace. There are no exceptions to these rules, no matter how many decks are used. Whether the dealer must hit or stand on soft 17 is also irrelevant.

The reason why players should hit in such cases is that the dealer has the so-called standing hand. The dealer has such a hand whenever they show a card from 7 through ace. This puts them in an advantageous position, as all that is needed for them is to reveal their upcard. In other words, the dealer is more likely to reach their standing total of 17 or higher when starting with 7 or above.

Their probability of busting decreases proportionally to the strength of their upcard, i.e. the higher its value, the lower the odds of the dealer breaking their hand. A dealer who stands on soft 17 in six-deck games will bust roughly 26.2% of the time with a 7, 24.4% of the time with an 8, and 22.9% per hundred hands with a 9.

The bust rates decline even further to 23% and 16.7% when the dealer begins with a ten-value card or an ace, respectively. Thus, gamblers need to remember to refrain from any aggressive moves and play cautiously if they find themselves in the situation described above.

Odds and Probabilities

It is not easy to estimate quickly what the odds and probabilities are when a certain situation occurs. This is why players should be prepared beforehand, know the chances each particular hand gives them, and understand what the best move is.

Over the years, many experts and mathematicians have taken the time to calculate the odds and probabilities of the different hands gamblers can get throughout the course of the game.

It is estimated that when players have hand twelve, their chance of going bust is 31%. Whenever they have hand thirteen, the odds of going bust increase to 38%. These figures are based on a multi-deck game and assume the players choose to hit.

Conclusion

It is important for players to understand that whenever their hand totals less than 19, they are in a bad position, as the average winning hand is 18.5. Even 18 doesn’t guarantee a win, let alone a hand totalling 12 or 13.

However, having any of these two hands doesn’t doom players to a certain loss. Gamblers need to understand that knowing how to proceed in any given situation directly affects their choices and determines the course of the game. This is the only way they will be able to tackle such situations and achieve the desired result.

Using the right strategy doesn’t guarantee that a losing hand will turn into a winning one, but it does give players the chance to minimise their losses. If players find themselves in a situation where they have a hand of 12 or 13, they need to remember when to hit and when to stand, and follow basic strategy throughout the game.