Blackjack Hand 14, 15 or 16

If players’ priority is to win and improve with every single game of blackjack, they need to invest both effort and time to achieve this. There are many other things that gamblers need to take into account and focus on prior to playing and during the game. To make the best possible decisions every time, players should prepare themselves beforehand.

• Important Things To Consider
• What are Breaking Hands
• Breaking Hands’ Situations
• When Players Have Hand 14, 15 or 16
• The Option to Surrender
• Hard 16 Consisting of Paired 8s
• Odds and Probabilities
• Conclusion

For instance, it is recommended that they study every possible hand they could receive and determine the best choice in each case. Knowing how to proceed in difficult situations when players hold a hand of 14, 15 or 16 is crucial, as the total value of any of these hands is significantly high, which means that the chance of busting increases.

Whenever a player’s hand total exceeds 14, they are already in an unfavourable situation. Such cases require a sound strategy, and gamblers should think them through in advance. Preparation and knowledge are compulsory if one wants to make the best possible decision.

Of course, as already mentioned, several other factors play a crucial role such as money management, discipline, a decent bankroll, and, not to forget, a bit of luck. Whenever players have the chance to turn the tables in their favour, they should take full advantage of the situation.

Important Things To Consider When Having Hand 14, 15 or 16

When players are unfortunate enough to get a hand of 14, 15 or 16, they need to be very careful and stick to the strategy they have chosen. These are situations in which players are already one step from going bust regardless of the dealer’s upcard. However, this does not mean they should ignore its value; players need to always bear in mind that they must make their moves based on the dealer’s upcard.

Moreover, the way players proceed in such situations demonstrates their level of competence and knowledge to the other players at the table. Since gamblers are already in an unfavourable situation, winning the hand shouldn’t be their priority. Instead, they should aim to make the move that will result in the smallest possible loss.

These are some of the trickiest hands in blackjack and, as such, they are frequently misplayed. Part of the confusion results from the discrepancies in strategy charts. The optimal playing decisions vary depending on many different factors. These include how many decks are in play at the table, whether or not the dealer must hit soft seventeen, and whether players have the chance to late surrender.

All of these factors must be taken into account before you grab a basic strategy chart to take with you to the blackjack tables. What is optimal for hard totals 14 through 16 in a single-deck game may no longer be correct in multiple-deck variations.

What are Breaking Hands

The term ‘breaking hands’ is commonly used in blackjack, which makes it one of the important phrases with which players need to become familiar. Gamblers have a breaking hand when they receive their first two cards and their total is 12 or above. The reason for this is that almost every single card will cause players to go bust (i.e. break their hand) as their total value will go over 21. The dealer’s position can also be referred to as ‘breaking’ if their upcard is a 2 through 6.

The trouble with the so-called breaking hands, 12 through hard 17, is that they invariably lose in the long term against all upcards of the dealer, including those that have higher bust rates for the house. Hard 14, 15 and 16 are particularly tough to approach because they lose more frequently than they win over the long haul.

The result is that the player ultimately ends up in the red with these totals no matter what playing decision they make. You probably think that’s bad. It is, but it gets worse, as you will end up receiving these horrible stiff underdogs approximately 40% of the time you spend at the blackjack tables.

What is a player to do with these hard totals then? The answer is simple – trust in basic strategy and approach such underdog hands courageously by making the correct playing decisions. And by ‘correct’ we do not necessarily mean the ones that would secure a winning outcome.

The moves basic strategy recommends for these three hard hands are considered optimal because they reduce your negative expectation, i.e. you will end up losing less money with these stiffs over the long haul. In other words, you are on the defence rather than adopting an offensive approach. In some cases, the strategy plays help you escape a highly disadvantageous situation and increase your winning chances.

Breaking Hands’ Situations

As the name hints, ‘breaking hands’ refers to situations in which either the player or the dealer is in a very weak position. Such cases are extremely hard to cope with and the only way to have a chance of not going bust is to follow the basic strategy. Breaking hands are the reason why so many people lose in the long run as well. Thus, if players manage to learn how to deal with them, they will significantly improve their performance at the table.

The bottom line is that once gamblers have such breaking hands, the chances that they will go bust are very high. However, if they use basic strategy, they will be able to improve their hand once in a while.

Hitting plays a crucial role here, and players should take their time to decide when they should hit and when this task should be left to the dealer. If players have a breaking hand and the dealer’s position is standing, they should hit. Otherwise, they risk losing the hand.

When Players Have Hand 14, 15 or 16

It is best to examine these cases together, as the strategy for hands totalling 14, 15 and 16 is the same. It is also worth mentioning that the same applies when players have a hard 13 against the dealer’s various upcard combinations.

Let’s first elaborate on the recommended strategy plays for hard 14. These are the easiest to remember since there are no discrepancies in the strategy based on decks and dealer rules. Hard 14 is always a stand when the dealer exposes small cards 2 through 6. The player must hit their hard 14 against all other upcards, namely 7 through ace.

When dealt A-3, you have a soft 14. This is a much better situation to be in since it is impossible to break this hand with a one-card draw. You have an advantage against a dealer who starts with weak small cards 4 through 6.

In single-deck S17 blackjack, you must double on soft 14 versus the dealer’s 4, 5 and 6. When playing with two to eight decks, you should double on A-3 only when the dealer has a 5 or a 6, provided that the S17 dealer rule applies.

A pair of 7-7 also adds up to a total of 14. In shoe games, this pair must be split when the dealer has 2 through 7 and hit versus upcards 8 through ace. At single-deck tables, the pair should be surrendered against the dealer’s 10. The rest of the moves coincide with those for multi-deck blackjack.

The player is also in a tough spot when holding a hard 15. This is a bad hand, to begin with, no matter what value the dealer’s upcard is. However, things get trickier since the best plays are influenced by the dealer’s drawing rules and the number of decks.

We shall tackle the strategy differences in more depth in the surrender section of the article. Provided that late surrender is unavailable, you should stand on hard 15 against low-value cards 2 through 6 and hit versus 7 through ace. Undoubtedly, hitting a hard total of 15 is not the easiest decision to make at the blackjack table, especially against the dealer’s 10.

Nevertheless, it has to be done because it results in the lowest possible negative EV for the player. The main idea behind hitting 15 against a 10 is that it gives you a shot at improving your situation. The differences might appear negligible but, in the long run, they are not.

Soft 15 (A-4) requires a different approach due to the flexibility the ace gives you. You should double down versus low cards 4 through 6 and hit against all other cards the dealer starts with.

The situation of the player worsens even more when they are dealt a hard 16, the worst total one could possibly obtain in blackjack. There are several ways to get this terrible hand including 8-8, Q-6, 9-7 and 3-5-8. The pair of 8-8 should be split against all dealer upcards in the vast majority of blackjack variations. We expand on the particulars of this pair further on in this guide.

The correct strategy moves for hard 16, assuming you cannot surrender, are relatively easy to remember. You stand on 16 against 2 through 6 and hit versus 7 through ace. The same applies to multi-card totals that add up to 16, at least if you follow total-dependent basic strategy. In the absence of late surrender, hitting is again more optimal because it gives you the chance to improve your total against the strong dealer.

Again, all three hands will end up losing over the course of thousands of rounds played. The optimal decision is the one that cuts down your long-term losses the most. The above moves are recommended under total-dependent strategy. If you want to take your game to the next level, you can switch to composition-dependent strategy.

The latter takes into account the exact composition of your hand. Composition-dependent strategy recommends that you stand on hard 16 versus a 10 when your hand contains three or more cards like K-3-3. Also, when the 16 results from splitting a pair, you should stand rather than hit under composition-dependent strategy.

The Option to Surrender

There is one alternative move players can make which leads to the least possible losses. However, for this reason, many land-based casinos do not offer the option to surrender, as they know that players who understand when to use it can benefit greatly.

Many professional gamblers won’t play in a casino that doesn’t provide the option to surrender when playing blackjack. However, if players find themselves in such a situation and there is no surrender option, all they can do is act according to the above-mentioned strategy and hope for the best.

When this option is available, most casinos tend to offer late surrender. This allows players to give up on poor hands like hard 15 and hard 16 in exchange for half of their original wager. With late surrender, you can forfeit a bad hand after the dealer has checked for blackjack when starting with an ace or ten-value card.

Late surrender is beneficial to players because it takes away around 0.07% from the house advantage. Most novice players are averse to surrendering, as the name of the move itself evokes negative connotations. However, surrendering is a smart move when you are dealt negative-expectation hands like 15 or 16 versus strong dealer upcards like 10s and aces.

As a general rule of thumb, surrendering is recommended whenever you receive a hand whose expectation of winning is less than 50%. The main advantage of surrendering is that it saves you money when you find yourself at a disadvantage. Late surrender is a defensive play which also allows advantage players to temper the effect variance has on their blackjack bankrolls.

The correct late surrender plays depend on deck number and the dealer’s fixed standing rules. In single-deck blackjack, surrender is recommended when you have hard 16 versus the dealer’s ace or 10.

Provided that the dealer hits soft 17, it is also recommended to surrender hard 15 against an ace. You should forfeit paired 7s against the dealer’s 10 in single-deck S17 blackjack. If one deck is in play and the dealer must hit soft 17, surrendering is advisable against tens and aces when you have 7-7.

In double-deck H17 games, surrender is advisable when you hold hard 15 and hard 16 against the dealer’s ace and 10. Paired 8s should also be surrendered against the ace in double-deck H17 blackjack.

As for shoe-dealt games, basic strategy suggests surrendering hard 16 against strong upcards such as 9, 10 and ace. The approach toward hard 15 in multi-deck variations depends on the dealer’s fixed rules for drawing and standing. You surrender the 15 against the dealer’s 10 in S17 variations and against both the 10 and the ace in H17 multi-deck blackjack.

Hard 16 Consisting of Paired 8s

If you have read CasinoGuardian’s blackjack guide carefully so far, you probably remember that the rule of thumb according to basic strategists is always to split pairs of 8-8 rather than forfeiting them, even though this still forms a hard total of 16. Some gambling authors recommend surrendering the pair of 8s versus high dealer upcards like 10, K, Q and J.

Regrettably, this is a major mistake, and here is why. On average, the dealer will arrive at standing totals of 17 through 21 around 77% of the time when you hold 8-8 versus a ten-value card.

What adds insult to injury is that the dealer’s probability of busting when starting with a ten-value card is rather small at 23%. A pair of 8-8 will cost you money no matter how you approach it, but splitting is recommended because it reduces your losses the most. With 8-8, you have a great opportunity to turn a terrible stiff 16 into two brand-new hands starting with an 8 each. This improves your chances of forming a good hand and beating the dealer.

Assuming you play standard six-deck S17 blackjack where you can resplit to up to four hands and double down after you split, your 8-8 will lose against the dealer’s ten-value card 77 times out of every one hundred hands and win 23 times. However, your win rate improves to 38 hands out of every hundred rounds when you split your 8-8.

Let’s suppose you are flat betting £1 per hand for simplicity’s sake. If you merely hit the pair, you will lose £77 and win £23 every one hundred hands on average. This makes for an average net loss of £54 in the long run. Meanwhile, if you consistently split your 8-8 versus the dealer’s ten-value card, you will lose £62 and earn £38.

Your net losses drop to 2 x £24 = £48 per every one hundred hands in this case. This may not sound like a significant improvement, but you are still losing £6 less compared to drawing or staying on your pair of 8-8. Meanwhile, if you choose to surrender this pair, as some gambling authors advocate, you will net losses of £50 per every one hundred rounds on average (you lose only half your original wager when surrendering).

Therefore, consistently surrendering your pair of 8s versus the dealer’s 10 turns out to be £2 more expensive than splitting over the long haul. At this point, it is pretty much obvious you are in a losing spot when holding 8-8 no matter how you decide to play it out.

The bottom line is you will save more money by splitting in the long run compared to surrendering or the other possible plays. The only consolation of blackjack players in such instances is that they have made the mathematically optimal decision when dealt a long-term loser like stiff 16.

You can compare the expectation of each basic strategy play with paired 8s and 7s against the dealer’s 10 upcard below. The calculations are courtesy of mathematician and gambling expert Michael Shackleford, known as the Wizard of Odds.

As with all rules, there are exceptions. Paired 8s should always be split unless one is playing shoe games and double-deck blackjack where the dealer must hit soft 17. Under these playing conditions, the odds favour surrendering the pair of 8s rather than hitting when the dealer shows an ace.

Exceptions are also made for paired 7-7 in single-deck blackjack. When the dealer must stand on all 17s, you surrender the 7-7 against a 10. Provided that the dealer must hit soft 17, basic strategy recommends you surrender this pair whenever you are up against a 10 or an ace.

Odds and Probabilities

Players need to know their odds when they hold a total of 14, 15 or 16, as this will help them make better decisions. The following odds are accurate provided that the game is played with more than one deck and that gamblers decide to hit. If they have a hand totalling 14, the chance that they will bust is 46%; if the total is 15, the chance rises to 54%.

If they are unfortunate enough to receive a total of 16, their chances of busting are 62%. The worst-case scenario is when players get 19 or 20, as this leaves them with more than an 85% chance of going bust. The good news is basic strategists never draw to hard 19 and hard 20, so their chances of busting with these totals are practically nil. Logically, the higher the total of the cards in the players’ hand, the more likely they are to bust by taking a hit.

Conclusion

Having to deal with a hand of 14, 15 or 16 is a significant challenge that requires thorough preparation and a solid strategy. Even then, players’ success is not guaranteed and they can only hope that the odds will be in their favour.

However, if they follow basic strategy or choose to surrender where appropriate, either choice will minimise their losses. Once players find themselves in a bad situation, they should focus on minimising their losses rather than trying to win the hand, as chasing victory in such spots often leads to certain doom.