Blackjack is one of the most-played casino games around the world, as it offers players the chance to apply their skills and knowledge, turn the tables, and win. Over the years, a number of strategies have been developed, specifically designed to help them gain an advantage over the casino.
However, in order to achieve this result, there are many important factors that should be taken into account. When it comes to playing blackjack, every small detail matters and can make the difference between winning and losing.
If players want to become consistent winners, they need to understand the major role of their bankroll as well as their money-management skills. The only way to make a profit and successfully keep it is to be aware of the game’s percentage return and know how to benefit from it.
This is especially important because the casino always has a built-in advantage, and the odds are not in favour of basic strategy players before they have even started playing. This is why they must be disciplined enough to leave the table when they are ahead.
What is ROI
In the gambling world, the abbreviation ROI stands for Return on Investment, which, as the name suggests, indicates the success or loss associated with a particular amount of money wagered on each hand. Thanks to this metric, players can determine how efficiently their money is being invested during the game; therefore, it is considered a very useful tool.
Knowing the ROI in advance enables them to make wiser decisions regarding their bankroll and even their moves. It is another subtlety that is closely related to money management as well as discipline.
The term ROI is borrowed from the financial sector, where it denotes the ratio between investors’ net gains and the overall cost of their investment. The larger one’s ROI, the greater the gains they have registered. Conversely, the lower the ROI, the smaller the person’s profits. In other words, ROI is a measurement of one’s financial performance regardless of whether they invest in stocks, sports betting, or gambling.
Calculating ROI is rather straightforward. The simplest way is to divide your total profits by the overall amount you have staked within a certain timeframe. Assuming you have wagered £10,000 over the course of the last five weeks and have generated winnings of £850, the ROI will be equal to £850 / £10,000 = 0.085. The return on investment can also be expressed as a percentage if you multiply it by 100, like so: 0.085 x 100 = 8.5%, which is low. ROI needs to exceed 100% or else you are in the red.
Keep in mind that it is possible to generate a high return on investment over the short run. Professional gamblers succeed in achieving this in the long term. Also, to assess the ROI accurately, one needs to take into account the volume of wagers they have placed.
A person who has achieved an ROI of, say, 104% after placing 4,000 wagers is seen as more successful than one with an ROI of 140% over the course of 400 bets. This can be attributed to short-term variance.
Expected Return to Players
The expected return to player (RTP) differs slightly from ROI, as it represents the average amount of money players win or lose on each hand they play. The expected return varies depending on the game rules and its many variations.
Important factors such as whether the dealer hits or stands on soft 17, whether doubling down on soft hands is allowed, and whether re-splitting is an option must all be taken into account. They directly influence the players’ odds and probabilities and can worsen or improve their expected return.
Understandably, when players are deprived of the option to double down in certain cases or to re-split, their expected return decreases. For this reason, when choosing a casino and a table, players are advised to look for rules and variations that favour them.
For instance, if single-deck blackjack is available, it is considered very advantageous for players. However, they should always check in advance the payout of this version, since more and more casinos have started to pay 6 to 5. If this is the case, they need to refrain from playing, as their chances of making a profit are nil.
The theoretical return to player is basically the same thing as expected value and is normally expressed as a percentage. The RTP can also be treated as a reflection of the house edge. To calculate it, you can subtract the house edge of your chosen blackjack variation from 100%.
So, for example, if a given game yields 0.36% in favour of the casino, its theoretical return would be 100% – 0.36% = 99.64%. In turn, this means the game will return approximately £99.64 for every £100 wagered in the long run. The house gets to keep the rest.
However, this only happens after thousands of hands have been played. Due to variance and the law of small numbers, it is possible to win or lose much larger amounts than the long-term RTP indicates. One of the peculiarities that distinguishes blackjack from other casino games, like craps or roulette, is that the RTP varies across different variants of 21. For example, a variation like Blackjack Switch has a theoretical return of 99.87%, whereas Atlantic City Blackjack offers lower long-term returns of 99.65%.
Such discrepancies are due to the fact that both the house edge and the theoretical return of blackjack are additive, i.e. each rule in place gives or takes from the house edge. It follows that different rulesets yield different theoretical returns in blackjack. Of course, the higher the RTP percentage, the better for the basic strategy player.
Another thing worth mentioning is that theoretical returns and expected value fluctuate depending on what hand you get versus a given dealer upcard. Some hands, like 16 vs. 10, offer negative returns in the long term, and you will be in the red no matter how you play them unless you know how to count cards.
It is also important to consider the availability of side bets in some online and terrestrial variants of 21. As a general rule, such proposition wagers are introduced to boost the house’s take from table games like blackjack. All side wagers, without exception, have considerably higher house edges than those basic strategy players combat in the main game.
In turn, this reduces the theoretical return to player of said side bets. Exactly by how much depends on the side wager’s payout. Let’s use Perfect Pairs as an example, since this is the most popular group of blackjack side wagers.
Felt’s online version of this variation, for instance, yields a theoretical return to player of 99.63% in the base game, which is quite decent. However, the RTP of the Perfect Pairs side bet drops to 93.89% for a house edge of 6.11%. Because of this, basic strategy players should refrain from playing these side bets on a consistent basis.
The same goes for progressive blackjack variations, where players are usually required to make side bets to become eligible for winning the progressive jackpots. The house holds a significantly larger edge on these.
The Cost of Basic Strategy Errors and Their Effect on the RTP
When comparing the RTPs and house edges while choosing a blackjack variation, you should keep in mind that the listed figures assume perfect basic strategy play. In other words, if you play haphazardly, your theoretical return will be lower than the listed percentage. The more playing errors one makes, the greater the casino’s edge becomes.
Bad players end up paying for every strategy mistake they commit. The monetary penalties differ depending on the severity of the violation. Thus, always buying insurance against the dealer’s ace will take away 0.23% from your long-term theoretical return. If you never double down, you decrease your return by 1.6%.
Hitting hard hands versus low-value cards will cost you 3.2% in terms of RTP. Splitting and re-splitting ten-value cards translate into an 8% reduction in the theoretical return, while standing on hard hands against high-value dealer upcards leads to a 3% reduction. If you combine all these playing mistakes and commit them consistently, as some people do, the house edge would grow from the standard 0.50% to a whopping 16%. Thus, your long-term theoretical return would drop from £99.50 to £84 for every £100 wagered.
Figuring Out Your Expected Return and EV
Unlike basic strategy players, who inevitably end up in the red provided that they play long enough, card counters are able to generate a positive expected return, or EV, in the long run. The term EV denotes expected value, i.e. the amount a blackjack player is expected to lose or win over time. In this sense, it is similar to the theoretical return to player.
So how do you know what your EV is when you play blackjack? If you are a basic strategy player, this is not all that difficult to figure out. First, you must find out what the theoretical return to player of your chosen blackjack variant is. This is a very easy task if you play online, since most software providers list the RTP percentage in their games’ Help sections.
Then you subtract the RTP from 100% to determine what house edge you are up against. Once you figure this out, you multiply the house edge by your average wager and then by the number of hands per hour. The latter will be higher for online players due to the more dynamic pace inherent to RNG-based blackjack games.
Provided that you play against a 0.50% house edge and flat-bet £10 per hand for one hundred hands per hour, your long-term hourly EV would be (-0.005) x £10 x 100 = -£5. You will surely experience streaks where you win or lose a couple of hundred pounds within the same timeframe, but this is all due to short-term variance. However, if you go through enough hands, the mathematics of the game will work out and you will give £5 per hour to the casino.
This is not the case for card counters, however, because there is no house edge. The opposite applies since card counters have an advantage over the casino. Nonetheless, the formula for calculating expected value is the same.
Most advantage players implement simulation software, like Norm Wattenberger’s Casino Verite, that tells them exactly how much expected value they will generate in the long term. They, too, experience streaks and register different short-term wins or losses until, sooner or later, they reach their expected value.
Setting Appropriate Win Goals Is the Key to Winning
Blackjack is a casino game and, as such, it always has a built-in advantage, regardless of its variations and rules. If players want to make a profit, they need to have good money-management skills and discipline. One of the most important things is to set a realistic and achievable percentage return for each session, in accordance with their bankroll, and play until they reach it.
For instance, if players bring £300 to the casino table, their win goal should be around £60. The only way to make a profit and manage to keep it is if they are content with winning small amounts every time, rather than winning big once.
As already indicated, blackjack is not a game that favours the players. Even if they know basic strategy and possess the required discipline and skills, their chances of winning each hand are slightly below 50/50. This is the reason why they should set small win goals and withdraw when they reach them. This way, they will not only enjoy the game but also make a profit in the long term.
Gambling Discipline
ROI and Return to Player
Blackjack Casinos
Blackjack Mobile Casinos
Blackjack Switch
Importance of the Bankroll
The bankroll plays a crucial role, as it directly influences the players’ choices during the game. Every time they go to a casino, they may be able to bring a different amount of money, which is why their win goals and loss limits should be set in advance each day.
Moreover, this reduces the chance that their bets and moves will be influenced by their current feelings or emotions. In order to prevent themselves from losing their entire bankroll in one go, players need to divide it according to the sessions they intend to play.
Understandably, the bigger their bankroll is, the higher their win goals can be. However, this strategy might draw some unwanted attention from the casino and cause them trouble.
This doesn’t mean that players shouldn’t bring a decent bankroll if they can, as they can greatly benefit from it. Thanks to it, they will be able to achieve their win goals faster and play according to basic strategy without any concern that they won’t be able to bet enough.
Moreover, not bringing enough money will inevitably result in losing all of it. Before players sit at a table, they should make sure their bankroll is in accordance with the table minimums and is sufficient to allow them to stay in the game long enough to get ahead.
If this is not the case, they should refrain from playing, as the result will always be the same – a certain loss. The best possible approach, if they want to make a profit out of this game, is to be content with small expected returns and achieve them as often as possible.
Conclusion
The bottom line is that if players want to become consistent winners and beat the casino, they should strive for small returns rather than big ones. It is worth mentioning that their bankroll plays a crucial role, as their loss limits and win goals are based on it.
If players don’t have enough money to withstand the game’s variance, they should refrain from going to the casino, as they are doomed to a certain loss. The expected return and ROI change according to the game rules and its variations, which is why they should pay extra attention to them prior to sitting at a table.