Key Moments:
- Tax Secretary Eugène Heijnen confirmed he will not introduce new policies. However, gambling tax revenue is still expected to fall in 2025.
- The Kansspelautoriteit now projects a €40 million ($47 million) decline in iGaming revenue for 2025. This reverses earlier forecasts of growth.
- Gambling tax rates will rise from 30.5% to 34.2% on January 1, 2025. Then, on January 1, 2026, the rate will increase again to 37.8%.
No Adjustments Planned to Offset Revenue Shortfall
During a parliamentary session last week, Dutch State Secretary for Taxation Eugène Heijnen said he will not introduce measures to counter the revenue drop. Instead, he stressed that this is not a compensatory policy. Moreover, he reaffirmed that gambling tax income will follow the KSA’s latest projections.
Heijnen addressed parliamentarians’ concerns directly, saying, “It is true that the estimate for revenue has been revised downwards this year. This picture is broadly consistent with the expectations communicated by the KSA in a recent report.”
Details of Expected Revenue Impact
n August, the KSA reported that the new rules will likely cut iGaming revenue by €40 million ($47 million) in 2025. This stands in contrast to earlier forecasts of a €100 million increase in gross gaming revenue (GGR). The tax will rise in two phases. First, it will go from 30.5% to 34.2% on January 1, 2025. Then, it will reach 37.8% on January 1, 2026.
| Year | Gambling Tax Rate | Expected Revenue Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 34.2% | €40 million ($47 million) decrease |
| 2026 | 37.8% | Data not provided |
Industry Concerns and Additional Background
The trade body VNLOK, representing licensed online gambling operators in the Netherlands, reported in August that more restrictive measures implemented over the past year – including bans on untargeted advertising and sponsorships, new deposit limits, and the heightened tax rates – have negatively influenced the sector. VNLOK projected that these changes could result in a €200 million shortfall in 2025, anticipating a 25% decline in GGR in the first half of the year compared to the previous year. In response, VNLOK urged the government to reconsider the tax structure.
Despite these concerns, the Ministry of Finance had earlier communicated expectations of collecting an extra €200 million in annual gambling tax revenues between 2025 and 2028 as a result of the tax increases.
Parliamentary Statements and Leadership Changes
Heijnen, who assumed the role of State Secretary for Taxation in early September, emphasized that revenue shortfalls are accounted for within standard budget rules and do not warrant immediate policy change. As Heijnen explained, “In accordance with budgetary rules, windfalls and shortfalls in tax revenue are reflected in the balance after policy is adopted. Therefore, the revenue shortfall from this perspective is not a compensatory policy.”
Heijnen succeeded Tjebbe Van Oostenbruggen, who resigned at the end of August along with several other officials, following the departure of Foreign Minister Caspar Veldkamp. Gambling Minister Teun Struycken also left his position.
- Author
Daniel Williams
