Key Moments:
- Macau reported MOP70.41 billion ($8.78 billion) in gaming tax collection during the first nine months of 2025, an increase of 6 percent year-on-year
- Casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) for January-September 2025 reached MOP181.3 billion ($22.58 billion), up 7.1 percent from the previous year
- Citi raised its 2025 GGR outlook for Macau to MOP248.6 billion ($31.1 billion), indicating expectations of around 10 percent annual growth
Gaming Tax Collections Reach New Heights
Macau’s government has recorded MOP70.41 billion ($8.78 billion) in gaming tax revenue for the first nine months of 2025, marking a 6 percent year-on-year rise, as per the Financial Services Bureau (DSF). This sustained growth points to the ongoing resilience of the casino industry, a fundamental pillar of local public finances.
Casino Revenue Trends and Industry Performance
Between January and September 2025, casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) stood at MOP181.3 billion ($22.58 billion), a 7.1 percent boost compared to the same stretch last year. This uptick underscores the region’s post-pandemic revival, driven by persistent visitor arrivals and renewed gaming activity.
Gaming tax receipts in August amounted to MOP8.53 billion ($1.06 billion), edging out the MOP8.31 billion ($1.04 billion) posted in July. This sequential increase highlights the robust showing by Macau’s six licensed casino operators, all operating under a 10-year gaming concession framework initiated on 1 January 2023.
The effective tax rate on casino GGR remains steady at approximately 40 percent. Gaming taxes continue to constitute the largest share of official fiscal income year after year.
Government Revenues: Gaming’s Dominant Role
As of 30 September, the DSF indicated that gaming taxes made up about 85.2 percent of Macau’s overall current revenue of MOP82.63 billion ($10.27 billion). This level of contribution underscores the significant reliance on the casino sector for funding essential public services and projects.
So far, the amount collected represents 79.5 percent of the government’s 2025 annual gaming tax goal set at MOP88.56 billion ($11.02 billion). Current figures suggest Macau is on pace to meet or surpass these fiscal objectives if present trends continue through year-end.
Despite this performance, authorities previously revised their 2025 full-year GGR estimate downward by 5 percent, moving from MOP240 billion ($29.86 billion) to MOP228 billion ($28.37 billion), citing caution resulting from worldwide economic pressures and uneven recovery in certain visitor categories.
Contrasting Forecasts: Citigroup’s Upbeat Outlook
While the government has adopted a more cautious stance, Citigroup recently elevated its GGR forecast for Macau in 2025 to MOP248.6 billion ($31.1 billion). The bank projects around 10 percent year-on-year growth, with stronger tourism and heightened casino activity as contributing factors.
Citi analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau wrote in their latest memo that entertainment events and the growing popularity of baccarat side bets have boosted gaming volumes across Macau’s integrated resorts. Based on their analysis, the remainder of 2025 could see around 14 percent year-on-year growth, bringing stronger results than initially anticipated.
The bank also raised its projection for 2026 to MOP265.5 billion ($33.3 billion), reflecting optimism regarding Macau’s longer-term expansion as it diversifies its tourism offerings and attracts a broader visitor segment from mainland China and international markets.
Key Financial Metrics (Jan-Sep 2025)
| Metric | Value | Year-on-Year Change |
|---|---|---|
| Gaming-Related Tax Collected | MOP70.41 billion ($8.78 billion) | +6% |
| Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) | MOP181.3 billion ($22.58 billion) | +7.1% |
| Current Government Revenue | MOP82.63 billion ($10.27 billion) | N/A |
| Percentage of Revenue from Gaming | 85.2% | N/A |
| Progress Toward Annual Gaming Tax Target | 79.5% | N/A |
- Author
Daniel Williams
