Key Moments:
- Macau’s October gross gaming revenue (GGR) reached US$1.9 billion (MOP 14.85 billion) in the first 19 days of the month, according to JP Morgan
- Average daily casino revenue for Macau increased by 25 per cent to MOP 781 million in the third week of October
- JP Morgan raised its October growth forecast to a year-on-year increase between 3 and 6 per cent
October Revenue Rebounds After Slow Golden Week
Macau’s casino market registered a significant upswing in gross gaming revenue (GGR) during October, reaching US$1.9 billion (MOP 14.85 billion) for the first 19 days, as reported by JP Morgan. The surge occurred after a sluggish start to the month, with analysts noting a surprisingly strong recovery following the Golden Week holiday period. This improvement followed steady fiscal momentum, with Macau’s gaming tax revenue totaling US$8.8 billion during the first nine months of 2025.
Key Drivers Behind Market Recovery
The third week of October demonstrated notable growth in daily casino revenue, averaging MOP 781 million – a 25 per cent jump from the MOP 593 million reported for the second week. The preceding period included the end of the Golden Week, which fell short of analyst expectations.
The earlier segment of October was marked by China’s National Day and the Mid-Autumn Festival, both coinciding with external challenges such as Typhoon Matmo and other large-scale events, including the Singapore F1 Grand Prix. These occurrences contributed to a drop in visitor numbers. Nevertheless, analysts described these disruptions as short-term, not indicative of enduring weaknesses.
Upgraded Industry Outlook for 2025 and Beyond
Reflecting on the turnaround, JP Morgan revised its October projections, now forecasting 3 to 6 per cent year-on-year revenue growth for the month. If positive momentum continues, analysts suggest that the final results could exceed these updated estimates.
Looking ahead, JP Morgan anticipates that Macau’s gross gaming revenue will expand by approximately 10 per cent year-on-year in the fourth quarter. The firm also projects continued market growth in early 2026, underscoring continued investor optimism.
Analysts See Sustained Sector Strength
The recent upswing is considered a positive signal for the sector’s broader outlook in 2025. JP Morgan analysts DS Kim, Selina Li and Lindsey Qian indicated that, should recovery trends persist, industry earnings could rise by 10 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 13 per cent in the first quarter of 2026. Their assessment highlights the resilience of Macau’s casinos in navigating external headwinds.
Revenue Performance Summary
| Period | GGR (in MOP) | GGR (in USD) | Average Daily Casino Revenue (MOP) | Growth % vs Prior Week |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First 19 days of October | 14.85 billion | 1.9 billion | – | – |
| Second week of October | – | – | 593 million | – |
| Third week of October | – | – | 781 million | +25% |
| Jan-Sep 2025 gaming tax revenue | – | 8.8 billion | – | – |
Outlook: New Phase of Macau Growth?
Analysts remarked that, with improving visitor trends and the revival of luxury tourism, the mid-October rebound could signal renewed momentum for Macau’s gaming sector. The ongoing recovery stands as evidence of the market’s robust capacity to absorb and rebound from short-term challenges.
- Author
Daniel Williams
