Key Moments:
- EY forecasted a potential loss of approximately 3,000 jobs with unified betting and gaming duties at 21%.
- The report has suggested more drastic tax rises could lead to over £2 billion in Gross Value Added losses for the industry.
- Up to 8% of gambling activity could migrate to unlicensed offshore platforms if taxes sharply increase, according to EY.
Proposed Tax Changes Raise Economic Concerns
An independent study prepared by Ernst & Young (EY) has cautioned that prospective changes to the United Kingdom’s betting and gaming tax regime may negatively affect the industry’s economic output and encourage a shift toward unregulated gambling operators.
The analysis, titled Impacts of Changes to Betting and Gaming Taxation, was commissioned by the Betting and Gaming Council (BGC) and submitted to His Majesty’s Treasury before the Autumn 2025 Budget. The report evaluated several government options, such as consolidating remote betting and gaming duties and increasing overall excise rates.
Predicted Revenue Shifts and Employment Impacts
EY estimated that combining General Betting Duty and Remote Gaming Duty at 21% could initially yield an extra £250 million ($333 million) in Treasury revenue. Nevertheless, EY warned that broader effects on the sector could include a £240 million reduction in Gross Value Added (GVA) and the potential elimination of about 3,000 jobs due to factors such as declining stakes, reduced operator profits, and the possibility of venue closures.
The report further considered theoretical models advanced by entities including the Social Market Foundation and the Institute for Public Policy Research. In scenarios that elevate remote gaming duty to 50%, EY projected cumulative GVA losses exceeding £2 billion and notable negative effects across the industry’s supply chain.
Consumer Sensitivity and Regulatory Implications
EY used data sets from HMRC receipts, Gambling Commission metrics, and BGC membership information to build its analysis. The firm indicated that negative outcomes from tax hikes might be intensified by consumer responsiveness to higher costs and by newly proposed regulations outlined in the Government’s 2023 Gambling White Paper.
Increasing Threat from Unregulated Markets
The report also addressed the escalating risk of the black market. EY estimated that up to 8% of gambling activity could transition to illegal offshore operators if tax rates were increased substantially, which could undermine player protections and result in lower overall tax revenues.
Industry Reactions and Policy Discussions
Publication of the EY report has occurred during ongoing debate about gambling tax legislation. In August, a one-day strike by British racing stakeholders was triggered by concerns over duty reform, with claims that such changes could jeopardize the sport’s financial base.
The Betting and Gaming Council has stated that the report’s findings are meant to inform ongoing discussions with the Treasury as fiscal policy around gambling taxation is finalized for the Autumn Budget. The Council maintains that reform should support fiscal responsibility while preserving employment, investment, and secure markets for players.
| Scenario Evaluated | Projected Treasury Revenue Impact | GVA Impact | Jobs Impact | Potential Market Shift |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duties aligned at 21% | +£250 million | -£240 million | Approx. -3,000 jobs | Not specified |
| Remote Gaming Duty at 50% | Not specified | Over -£2 billion | Sharp employment drop (supply chain) | Up to 8% activity to offshore |
- Author
Daniel Williams
