Key Moments:
- A legal expert has stated that prediction markets do not have a recognized legal path in the Philippines.
- Meanwhile, PAGCOR has not created any license category for prediction market platforms.
- Consequently, the absence of licensing means real-money prediction markets are considered illegal under current Philippine law.
Legal Status of Prediction Markets
Prediction markets, which allow trading on the likelihood of future events, face significant hurdles in the Philippines. According to a recent analysis from Arden Consulting, lawyer Marie Antonette “Tonet” Quiogue explains that these markets fall under gambling activities in Philippine law. In particular, the country’s Revised Penal Code defines gambling as any game or scheme that relies mainly on chance, where money or something of value is wagered. This classification stands even when skill or analysis is involved, as the act of wagering on uncertain outcomes falls under the gambling parameters established by law.
PAGCOR’s Regulatory Stance
The Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corporation (PAGCOR) oversees licensing and regulation for gambling within the Philippines. Tonet Quiogue notes that, to date, PAGCOR has not authorized any prediction market platforms. The agency appears to treat prediction markets as a unique betting product requiring regulatory oversight. Moreover, PAGCOR’s current licensing framework only covers established categories. These include conventional casino games, online casino products, and pre-approved sports betting.
Without a designated license category or regulatory assignment, any prediction market dealing with real money would be operating outside the law. The absence of proper licensing makes these operations illegal, and those involved may face criminal penalties as dictated by anti-gambling statutes.
Lack of Alternative Regulatory Pathways
While some countries, like the United States, may treat certain prediction markets as regulated futures contracts, Philippine law does not offer comparable alternatives. At present, there is no way to register event trading platforms as regulated financial instruments. Furthermore, the country lacks an active commodities or futures exchange for these markets. Additionally, there is no avenue for recognition or registration with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for these event-related contracts.
International Perspectives and Industry Feedback
On a global scale, how prediction markets are governed varies widely. Some jurisdictions, including the UK and the US, have licensed operators, while others such as Singapore, Thailand, and Taiwan, have prohibited the activity on gambling grounds.
In the United States, the American Gaming Association has voiced criticism against operators like Kalshi and Polymarket, stating: “offering sports bets without ways to protect its consumers, which is required for any operators.” The group argues that these platforms do not provide essential consumer safeguards, such as responsible gaming resources, anti-money laundering protocols, or age restrictions commonly available in regulated environments.
Uncertain Future for Prediction Markets in the Philippines
At present, the regulatory prospects for prediction markets in the Philippines remain uncertain and are likely to be slow to materialize. With no specific laws or categories supporting such platforms, legitimate operation appears unattainable for the foreseeable future. As a result, current offerings that are not registered with PAGCOR are considered illegal, with potential consequences for both operators and users. Both domestic regulators and industry stakeholders in the Philippines must resolve substantial legal questions before prediction markets can become a part of the established gambling landscape.
Global Regulation Status of Prediction Markets
| Country/Region | Status |
|---|---|
| United Kingdom | Licensed |
| United States | Licensed (selected platforms) |
| Singapore | Banned |
| Thailand | Banned |
| Taiwan | Banned |
- Author
Daniel Williams
