Key Moments:
- EY’s independent analysis warns that proposed tax increases could endanger over 40,000 jobs in the UK’s betting and gaming sector
- More than £8.4 billion in stakes may be pushed to the gambling black market under heightened tax rates advocated by SMF and IPPR
- Net economic contribution from the sector could shrink by £3.1 billion, with the Treasury’s actual gains potentially falling below £500 million
Proposed Tax Changes Raise Alarm
Fresh analysis by EY commissioned by the Betting and Gaming Council (BGC) has highlighted significant risks related to measures promoted by the SMF and IPPR think tanks. The research indicates that substantial tax hikes, as proposed, would threaten more than 40,000 jobs in the UK betting and gaming sector and jeopardize a vital part of the nation’s economy. In addition to job losses, the analysis projects that £8.4 billion in stakes could shift from regulated firms to the gambling black market, undermining legitimate business and consumer protections.
The proposals by 'think tanks' to increase gambling tax rates to raise extra revenue appear to have fallen apart at the seams. It appears they will barely raise any revenue and result in tens of thousands of jobs loses. pic.twitter.com/23MEsfipVu
— Chris Fawcett (@chrisgambler247) October 28, 2025
Economic Impact and Current Sector Contributions
BGC members currently add £6.8 billion to the UK economy, pay £4 billion in taxes, and support over 109,000 jobs nationwide. Many of these positions are highly skilled, with locations in cities such as Stoke-on-Trent, Manchester, Leeds, Nottingham, Sunderland, and Warrington. EY’s study suggests that the tax increases advocated by SMF and IPPR would severely disrupt this ecosystem, placing not only jobs but also vital tax contributions at risk.
Details of the Tax Proposals
The proposed changes recommend that the current tax rates – 21% on online bingo, 15% on sports betting, and 20% on machine gaming – be raised dramatically to 50% for online gaming (Remote Betting Duty) and 25% for sports betting (General Betting Duty). These represent extraordinary increases compared to current levels. According to the EY analysis, the IPPR plan would lead to more than 40,000 lost jobs and remove £3.1 billion from the sector’s economic Gross Value Added (GVA), while similar recommendations by SMF would result in 30,200 lost jobs, £8.1 billion funneled to the black market, and £2.5 billion in lost economic GVA.
| Proposal | Jobs Lost | Black Market Stakes | Economic GVA Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| IPPR | 40,000 | £8.4 billion | £3.1 billion |
| SMF | 30,200 | £8.1 billion | £2.5 billion |
Revenue Projections and Actual Impact
The IPPR suggested their plan would generate £3.2 billion in new revenue. However, EY’s evaluation puts the likely short-term gain at just over £1 billion. Factoring in anticipated losses from reduced employment, corporation tax, National Insurance contributions, and closures of venues, EY’s modeling projects the Treasury’s gain could ultimately fall below £500 million.
Industry observers caution that any short-term fiscal advantage would decline further as customers migrate from the regulated sector due to less favorable odds, fewer promotions, and generally diminished offerings.
Importance of Sustainable Regulation
Both SMF and IPPR’s analyses have omitted the 2023 Gambling Act Review White Paper, a major recent overhaul of UK gambling legislation, which is already expected to reduce sector revenues by about £1 billion. They have also forecast a 31% growth rate for the sector by 2025; however, EY estimates a much lower growth rate of only 4% between 2023 and 2026.
Grainne Hurst, Chief Executive of the BGC, said: “It is now clear these further tax rises are a direct threat to British jobs and economic growth.
“The figures speak for themselves – tens of thousands of jobs lost, billions diverted to the black market, and a possible £3 billion hit to the economy.
“Tax raids like those proposed would mean fewer betting shops, casinos and bingo halls, fewer jobs, and a huge boost to the growing, unsafe gambling black market, while not raising anywhere near the tax claimed.”
Hurst further emphasized: “Balanced regulations and a stable tax regime guarantee a growing regulated sector. But these proposals would achieve the absolute opposite of that and undermine the very consumer protections that keep people safe by pushing customers towards the unregulated black market, where there are no safeguards, no tax receipts, no jobs, and no support for the sports we all love.
“Britain’s betting and gaming sector is a world leader – employing thousands, paying billions in tax, and investing in British sport.
“The choice is clear: back a successful, sustainable, regulated British industry – or risk losing jobs, investment and growth.”
- Author
Daniel Williams
