Key Moments:
- JP Morgan expects Macau’s gaming revenue to increase by up to 17% in December.
- The mid-tier mass market recovery has reached 80% to 85% of pre-pandemic levels, according to Vitaly Umansky.
- Seaport Research Partners forecasts 9.2% GGR growth in 2025 and about 7% annual growth through 2027.
Strong Recovery Fuels Industry Optimism
Macau’s casino sector has experienced a robust rebound, with packed gaming floors and rising confidence after years of instability. Analysts from leading financial institutions have indicated that the recovery story is still unfolding.
Forecasts from JP Morgan point to gaming revenue climbing as much as 17% in December. For November, the bank estimates a gain of 8% to 10% compared to the previous year. Projections also show growth of 12% to 13% for both the final quarter of 2025 and the beginning of 2026.
Key Drivers: Wealth, Liquidity, and Player Mix
Seaport Research Partners has identified several elements behind Macau’s resurgence: increased Chinese wealth, sustained liquidity, and improved visa access. These trends have contributed to the ongoing influx of premium and VIP players, keeping gaming venues vibrant.
Senior analyst Vitaly Umansky characterized Macau’s journey as a “long-term growth story” with deeper foundations in player confidence and strong cultural connections to gambling. He said the nature of the demand this time signals more sustainable momentum.
Mid-Tier Market Gains Traction
While VIP guests have often been the focus, the mid-tier mass segment has begun to take center stage. Umansky reported that this portion of the market has recovered to between 80% and 85% of pre-pandemic performance. Increased day trips from Hong Kong and Guangdong have supported a more diverse customer mix.
According to Umansky, extending overnight stays and boosting engagement are the next steps for operators. Companies are currently channeling resources into rewards programs, aggressive marketing, and new entertainment offerings to solidify these gains.
Outlook: Diversification and Sustainable Growth
JP Morgan and Seaport both anticipate that Macau’s upward trajectory will persist into the coming years. Seaport has projected 9.2% gross gaming revenue (GGR) growth for 2025, with annual expansion of around 7% through 2027.
Analysts see this phase as a transition toward greater stability. The industry is evolving, reducing its reliance on VIP activity and focusing more on entertainment, tourism initiatives, and elevating the customer experience.
Forward-Looking Perspectives
Macau is entering a new chapter, with visitor numbers rising and industry operators adapting strategies to attract a broader clientele. With the year drawing to a close, attention is on whether Macau can translate its remarkable comeback into enduring progress for the sector.
| Forecast/Segment | Growth/Recovery Percentage | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Gaming revenue (December) | Up to 17% | JP Morgan |
| Gaming revenue (November) | 8% – 10% year-on-year | JP Morgan |
| Overall growth (Q4 2025 & early 2026) | 12% – 13% | JP Morgan |
| Mid-tier mass segment recovery | 80% – 85% of pre-pandemic levels | Vitaly Umansky |
| 2025 GGR growth projection | 9.2% | Seaport Research Partners |
| Annual GGR growth (2026 – 2027) | ~7% per year | Seaport Research Partners |
- Author
Daniel Williams
