Key Moments:
- Compass Point raised Robinhood’s price target to $161 and reasserted a Buy rating
- Prediction market revenue for Q3 is estimated at $20 million, over double the prior quarter
- Robinhood shares increased up to 5% after the update, with more than 250% year-to-date growth
Compass Point’s Upward Revision
Compass Point Research & Trading has elevated its price target for Robinhood (HOOD) from $105 to $161, reaffirming its Buy recommendation. This shift follows mounting revenues across several business segments, particularly in prediction markets, equities, options, and cryptocurrency-related activities.
ROBINHOOD UPGRADE FROM $105 TO $161 BY COMPASS POINT:
– Our 3Q EBITDA forecast is 6% above the Street and we expect HOOD to disclose October trends pacing well above 4Q expectations.
– 4Q offers additional upside QoQ alongside higher prediction market volumes, crypto… pic.twitter.com/DIzCAlvMrr
— amit (@amitisinvesting) October 27, 2025
Prediction Markets Drive Revenue Growth
Analyst Ed Engel and his team highlighted in a client note that Robinhood’s prediction markets — introduced earlier this year — have rapidly gained popularity. Engel estimates third-quarter revenue from prediction markets at approximately $20 million, more than doubling the previous quarter’s figure. The forecast for the fourth quarter points to a further surge to $50 million, aligning with the platform benefiting from a full NFL season.
The firm’s analysis also states: “We forecast HOOD generating ~$20m in revenue from prediction markets in 3Q, which is up over 100% QoQ.” Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev said on X last month that the company has seen over 4 billion event contracts since launching prediction markets, including more than 2 billion in the third quarter.
Broader Momentum Across Divisions
Robinhood has continued to demonstrate robust momentum, with increased trading activity leading to higher contributions from equities, prediction markets, and crypto services. Engel’s note expects Robinhood “to disclose October trends pacing well above 4Q expectations.” Revenue gains are also projected from new offerings, especially staking services which let users lock up digital tokens in exchange for rewards.
The company reportedly collects approximately $0.01 per contract, bringing the estimated Q3 revenue from prediction markets to roughly $40 million. For the fourth quarter, Engel wrote: “We model HOOD’s 4Q prediction reaching ~$50m alongside a full quarter of NFL season.”
Cryptocurrency Services Gain Importance
Cryptocurrency trading and staking have emerged as important revenue streams. Engel stated, “We don’t believe the Street is accurately forecasting HOOD’s 2H25 or 2026 crypto revenue, which includes higher fee rates and staking revenue.”
Stock Performance and Analyst Ratings
Following the Compass Point report, Robinhood shares climbed as much as 5%. The stock has surged more than 250% year to date and was recently added to the S&P 500 Index (^GSPC). Analyst sentiment remains positive, with 20 Buy ratings, eight Hold, and one Sell.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Q3 Prediction Market Revenue Estimate | $20 million |
| Q4 Prediction Market Revenue Forecast | $50 million |
| Robinhood Share Price Target | $161 |
| YTD Stock Price Increase | 250% |
| Current Analyst Ratings | 20 Buy, 8 Hold, 1 Sell |
- Author
Daniel Williams
