Key Moments:
- Kalshi reported approximately $4.4 billion in trading volume in October, marking its most successful month to date
- Polymarket registered a 93.7% month-over-month increase in active traders, reaching 477,850 and surpassing previous records
- Both platforms experienced significant surges in market creation and trading liquidity amid rising institutional and retail interest
October Brings Record Performance for Kalshi and Polymarket
October witnessed a milestone for the prediction market sector, highlighted by standout performances from both Kalshi and Polymarket. Kalshi concluded the month with a record-breaking trading volume of about $4.4 billion, setting a new high for the regulated event-driven trading industry in the United States.
Since its launch in 2020, Kalshi has established a prominent presence as a regulated U.S. prediction exchange by prioritizing compliance, maintaining robust liquidity, and continuously introducing new products. These factors have contributed to the platform’s appeal among institutional investors as well as retail traders. Kalshi’s expanding influence signifies the growing recognition of regulated prediction markets within mainstream finance.
Polymarket’s Remarkable Comeback
Despite Kalshi’s headline figures, Polymarket demonstrated an equally impressive rebound. After experiencing a downturn with monthly active traders falling to 227,420 in August, Polymarket’s activity soared to 477,850 in October—a 93.7% rise from September and above its January peak of 462,600.
October’s data shows Polymarket’s trading volume surged to $3.02 billion, significantly above its summer averages, which were below $1 billion monthly. Additionally, 38,270 new markets were created during the month, nearly tripling the August total, and highlighting a strong uptick in retail engagement and speculative trading.
| Platform | October Trading Volume | Monthly Active Traders | New Markets Created (October) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | $4.4 billion | Not disclosed | Not disclosed |
| Polymarket | $3.02 billion | 477,850 | 38,270 |
Underlying Drivers Behind Market Growth
Industry analysts attribute Polymarket’s sharp increase in activity to a blend of new product initiatives and incentive-driven participation. Notably, speculation about a native POLY token and possible airdrop campaigns spurred trading activity, as participants sought to meet engagement thresholds. Such airdrop initiatives typically foster rapid growth in liquidity and the number of markets, a trend evident in Polymarket’s October figures.
Additional momentum stemmed from reports regarding a potential $15 billion valuation and unconfirmed discussions of Polymarket resuming operations in the U.S., both of which invigorated market enthusiasm. The expansion of prediction market interest beyond traditional political and sports betting into options-inspired event trades and macro market predictions further underscores this shift.
Distinct Approaches, Shared Momentum
While Kalshi and Polymarket employ fundamentally different strategies, they both advance the broader prediction market ecosystem. Kalshi’s disciplined, compliance-driven model appeals to institutions and prioritizes regulatory approval. In contrast, Polymarket leverages blockchain technology and draws strength from its open, community-centric approach.
With both platforms achieving unprecedented volumes, the sector appears to be transitioning toward an era where established financial models and decentralized systems converge. This surge in activity suggests the potential for sustained and meaningful growth as the market progresses toward 2025.
Outlook for Prediction Markets
Looking to the future, Kalshi’s adherence to regulatory standards is expected to continue attracting institutional investors. Polymarket, buoyed by upcoming token launches and possible U.S. market plans, could reinforce its role as a leading decentralized platform.
The strong performance in October could represent more than a temporary spike. It might signal a key turning point for prediction markets, uniting regulatory progress with technological innovation and heightened user enthusiasm, and intensifying the competition for international market leadership.
- Author
Daniel Williams
