Key Moments:
- Mexico’s Senate has authorized an increase in the Special Tax on Production and Services for online gambling from 30% to 50%.
- AIEJA has expressed serious concerns that the new tax could force licensed operators out of the market and strengthen unregulated platforms.
- The government targets MXN 761.5 billion (over USD 40 billion) in 2026. That marks a 10% increase over 2025 revenue projections.
Legislative Approval and Fiscal Goals
Mexico’s Senate passed broad fiscal reforms. These include a sharp rise in the online gambling tax from 30% to 50%. Lawmakers approved the measure in two rounds of voting. The first passed 75–37 and the second 76–34. The Ministry of Finance said the change should lift revenue to MXN 761.5 billion in 2026. That equals more than USD 40 billion and is about 10% higher than 2025 estimates.
Industry Response and Economic Concerns
The AIEJA strongly opposed the reform. The organization has warned that the elevated tax burden may significantly affect licensed operators, particularly smaller businesses, which could be compelled to either reduce their operations or leave the market entirely due to increased operational costs. AIEJA also suggested that this policy threatens Mexico’s attractiveness for investment and economic growth within the regulated gambling sector.
Risks to Market Legitimacy and Growth
According to AIEJA, raising the tax is likely to discourage future investment and hinder the expansion of Mexico’s regulated gambling market, which has experienced notable growth in recent years. The group said, “This decision risks driving legitimate operators out of business while allowing illegal platforms to thrive.” Members fear that higher taxes will push players toward unlicensed sites.
The group noted that 60% of online gambling offers accessible to Mexican consumers are currently unlicensed or illegal, operating outside of national tax and consumer protection frameworks. AIEJA stressed that the new tax does not address these challenges and could unintentionally amplify the black market, undermining the government’s revenue objectives.
| Tax Rate | Revenue Target (2026) | Change from 2025 Estimate |
|---|---|---|
| 50% | MXN 761.5 billion (>USD 40 billion) | +10% |
Calls for Policy Dialogue and Sector Collaboration
AIEJA has advocated for a collaborative approach, encouraging authorities and legislators to engage directly with stakeholders from the gambling and entertainment industries. “We reiterate our deep disappointment with this decision and invite our authorities and legislators to engage with the industry to understand its dynamics and enrich their analysis before making decisions that could prove counterproductive and harmful to the country”, declared the organization.
Looking Ahead: Market and Regulatory Outlook
Industry analysts have observed that the online gambling sector in Mexico contributes significantly to employment and technological development, drawing interest from global operators and tech firms. Concerns remain that the increased tax may undermine competitiveness and reverse the sector’s recent gains in the Latin American iGaming landscape. Although industry opposition continues, the new rate is poised for implementation in 2026 as part of the government’s fiscal agenda. The coming year is expected to be pivotal for both regulatory developments and market reactions within Mexico’s gambling industry.
- Author
Daniel Williams
