Key Moments:
- Assembly Bill 9251, known as the ORACLE Act, has been introduced in New York to regulate prediction markets under gambling laws.
- The proposed bill would prohibit betting on certain sensitive topics, including catastrophic events, politics, deaths, securities, and individual sports games.
- Legislative review of the bill is not expected to occur until January 7, 2026, following the end of the current session.
Bill Introduction and Objectives
New York Assemblyman Clyde Vanel has introduced Assembly Bill 9251, marking a significant effort to bring prediction markets under the same regulatory framework as traditional gambling. Titled the ORACLE Act (Oversight and Regulation of Activity for Contracts Linked to Events), the proposed legislation seeks to set boundaries on eligible betting events while implementing new user protections.
Legislative Intent and Market Concerns
As prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket have rapidly grown in popularity, lawmakers have voiced apprehension about their place in the regulatory landscape. These platforms have seen substantial betting volumes, with billions reportedly wagered during the last New York City mayoral race. In the words of Assemblyman Vanel:
“What this legislation does is, number one, it prevents certain types of events from being used on this platform. Number two, for event contracts that touch regulated betting activities in New York. These platforms have to abide by the same regulations and safeguards that the other betting platforms have to do in New York State.”
While New York considers this new approach, other states such as Massachusetts have already initiated legal actions against prediction market operators like Kalshi.
Principal Provisions and Consumer Protections
The ORACLE Act would set clear limitations on what types of events New Yorkers can bet on. The bill prohibits wagering on catastrophic events, political outcomes, deaths, securities, and individual sporting events. Some leeway remains for betting on broader tournaments; however, betting on single games would be off-limits.
Safeguarding consumer interests forms a central part of the legislation. If enacted, platforms would be required to:
- Ensure all users are at least 21 years old
- Provide self-exclusion options
- Prominently display the HOPE NY hotline
- Clearly disclose how event outcomes are determined, avoiding reliance on undisclosed information
Stricter advertising standards would come into effect as well. The bill forbids advertisements aimed at individuals under 21, the use of the term “risk-free” in promotions, and the dispatch of irrelevant deal notifications. Furthermore, deposits via credit cards and gift cards would be prohibited under the proposal.
Legislative Timeline
Although the ORACLE Act has been introduced, changes are not imminent. With the current legislative session concluded, further consideration of the bill is scheduled for January 7, 2026.
Overview of Key Restrictions
| Provision | Detail |
|---|---|
| Prohibited Bets | Catastrophic events, politics, deaths, securities, individual sports games |
| Permitted Sports Betting | Tournament-level bets (not single games) |
| User Age Minimum | 21 years |
| Advertising Limits | No targeting under 21; no “risk-free” claims; no irrelevant deal notifications |
| Deposit Methods | No credit or gift card deposits |
Looking Ahead
With the ORACLE Act, New York aims to provide a regulated environment for prediction markets, striving to ensure both fairness and safety for participants.
- Author
Daniel Williams
