Key Moments:
- Assembly Bill A9251 has been reintroduced to establish a regulated framework for prediction markets, strictly limiting contract offerings to residents
- The ORACLE Act outlines five categories of prohibited markets, including sports, politics, catastrophic events, deaths, and securities
- Senate Bill 2614, refiled on January 7, 2026, proposes legalizing and taxing online casinos and lottery sales, aiming to generate $1 billion in yearly tax revenue
Legislative Spotlight on Prediction Markets
New York lawmakers are considering renewed legislation to impose a robust regulatory framework for prediction markets. Assembly Bill A9251, known as the ORACLE Act, seeks to prohibit most market types and strengthen state oversight. The measure excludes contracts related to individual sports events, politics, catastrophic occurrences, deaths, and securities, but permits some tournament-based contract offerings. Brought forward again by State Representative Clyde Vanel during the current legislative session, this bill is positioned as a response to the increased prominence of prediction markets.
Scope of Prohibited Market Categories
The ORACLE Act identifies five key market categories that would be banned:
| Market Category | Prohibition Details |
|---|---|
| Athletic Events | No contracts on individual games or in-game outcomes; only tournament-level results allowed |
| Politics | No contracts on federal, state, or local elections or government actions |
| Catastrophic Events | No contracts on war, natural disasters, terrorism, public health emergencies, mass shootings, or similar events |
| Death Markets | No contracts on deaths, assassinations, attempted killings, or mass casualty incidents |
| Securities | No contracts relating to the price or performance of publicly traded securities |
Penalties for Non-Compliance
Severe civil penalties are prescribed for non-compliance. Each violation may result in fines of up to $10,000, escalating to $50,000 for repeated or ongoing violations. Offenses involving excluded participants or banned market makers are subject to penalties equal to twice the profits from the violation or $50,000, whichever is higher. If a court enjoins a platform and it fails to cease operations, penalties can reach $1 million per day. Severability provisions are included to maintain the law’s validity if certain sections are challenged in court. If enacted, these measures would take effect one year following passage, allowing platforms time to adjust.
Parallel Efforts to Expand Online Gambling
Alongside narrower rules for prediction markets, New York is also considering an expansion of regulated online gambling. Senate Bill 2614, reintroduced by State Senator Joseph Addabbo Jr. on January 7, 2026, aims to legalize and oversee online casinos and online lottery sales. This is Addabbo’s fourth attempt at advancing iGaming legislation. The bill covers online poker, table games, tournaments, and various casino-style offerings. Licenses would be extended to land-based casinos, tribal entities, video lottery venues, and mobile sports betting providers.
Potential Revenue and Allocation
The proposed Senate Bill 2614 sets a 30.5 percent tax rate on net gaming revenue. Licenses would cost $2 million for casinos and facilities, and $10 million for platform providers. Supporters believe this initiative could contribute approximately $1 billion annually in tax revenue, most of which would go to New York’s education sector. Furthermore, the bill earmarks $25 million annually to sustain jobs in land-based casinos and $11 million for problem gambling initiatives.
Next Steps and Regulatory Authority
The ORACLE Act currently remains under committee review. If enacted, the measure would mark one of the most rigorous state-level approaches to restricting prediction markets, with explicit limits on sports-related contracts. The state attorney general would be empowered to introduce additional rules as needed, exceeding the initial scope outlined in the bill.
- Author
Daniel Williams
