Key Moments:
- ADI PredictStreet reportedly paid over $150 million to become FIFA’s “Official Prediction Market Partner” in April despite not being operational at that time
- An investigation uncovered that $108 million of $167 million traded on the platform through late September originated from wallets funded by a single cryptocurrency source
- The majority of trading activity since late August came from a network accounting for 99% of all volume, highlighting potential concerns about market legitimacy
Unusual Trading Patterns Uncovered
ADI PredictStreet, a relatively unknown prediction-market platform before this year’s World Cup, drew attention after striking a high-value agreement with FIFA worth more than $150 million. Despite only recently acquiring a gambling license in Gibraltar, the firm quickly became FIFA’s official prediction-market partner for the 2026 World Cup.
Soon after, questions emerged about the authenticity of the platform’s reported trading figures. According to an investigation by The Wall Street Journal, about $108 million of the $167 million in trading volume up to late September came from a web of cryptocurrency wallets. These wallets were funded by a single crypto wallet that also collected trading fees from the platform, suggesting an unusually concentrated trading flow.
Concentration of Activity Raises Doubts
Further analysis revealed that this network was responsible for 99% of all trades on ADI PredictStreet since late August. This concentration led to doubts regarding independent customer participation. Three Harvard University researchers discovered 795 wallets in the network, most of which engaged in trading exclusively among themselves, as detailed in the Journal’s findings.
During the World Cup, just two wallets accounted for more than $81 million in transactions, adding to concerns over potential market manipulation practices such as “wash trading.” Such activity can exaggerate the appearance of market activity by repeatedly exchanging assets between accounts.
Regulatory and Governance Context
While the investigation uncovered a pattern consistent with wash trading, there is no definitive evidence confirming deliberate wrongdoing or identifying the controllers behind these wallets. The local regulator, Gibraltar’s gambling commissioner, told the Journal that a preliminary investigation showed the company complied with rules prohibiting self-trading.
ADI PredictStreet has been connected to International Holding Company, which is chaired by Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan. However, the firm contests the suggestion of royal involvement.
FIFA’s Response and Monitoring Measures
When the partnership was announced, FIFA introduced measures promising real-time monitoring for suspicious trading activity and protocols for sharing integrity threat information. However, it is still unknown if these procedures detected the trading activity later revealed by independent researchers.
ADI PredictStreet did not respond to the Journal’s request for comment.
Summary of Traded Volumes
| Period | Total Traded ($) | Traded by Examined Wallet Network ($) | Percentage of Platform Activity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Through Late September | 167,000,000 | 108,000,000 | Approximately 65% |
| Since Late August | – | – | 99% |
- Author
Daniel Williams
