Key Moments:
- Prediction Markets Summit Europe convened in Gibraltar, drawing legal, compliance, and regulatory experts
- Gibraltar’s dedicated prediction market regulations took effect on July 13 under the Gambling Act 2025
- Regulators from nine European countries have pledged coordinated action against unauthorized prediction market platforms
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| 10 November | Prediction Markets Summit Europe opened in Gibraltar |
| 13 July | Prediction Market Regulations 2026 went into effect in Gibraltar |
| June | Regulators from nine countries signed a joint declaration to combat unauthorized prediction market platforms |
Gibraltar Positions Itself as a Leader in Prediction Markets
Gibraltar, an early mover in writing Europe’s regulatory playbook for prediction markets, is actively working to attract operators that face mounting barriers elsewhere in the region. The territory’s Minister for Justice, Trade and Industry, Nigel Feetham, welcomed attendees to the Prediction Markets Summit Europe at the Sunborn Gibraltar on 10 November. To date, Gibraltar has issued two prediction market authorizations, with additional applications reportedly under consideration.
Summit Focuses on Legal and Regulatory Challenges
The Prediction Markets Summit Europe, organized by Eventus International, has been promoted as the first of its kind on the continent. Its roster included lawyers, compliance professionals, start-up founders, and harm-reduction groups like BetBlocker, the Ethical Gambling Forum, and the Centre of Excellence in Responsible Gaming (CERG). Speakers also included Gibraltar’s Gambling Commissioner, Andrew Lyman, as well as a representative from Denmark’s gambling regulator, Spillemyndigheden.
Gibraltar’s Vision and Regulatory Framework
During his remarks, Feetham described Gibraltar’s framework as a “substantial opportunity” for the territory, as reported by the Gibraltar Chronicle. He expressed a commitment to proceed “with ambition, but also discipline,” stating that upholding Gibraltar’s reputation remains a priority and that the territory will not seek to attract business by lowering regulatory standards. Feetham also cautioned that authorization in Gibraltar does not permit firms to operate in countries where prediction markets are not locally licensed.
Nigel Feetham, Minister for Justice, Trade and Industry, said:
‘Prediction markets also raise questions that no jurisdiction can answer entirely in isolation.’
New Rules for Prediction Markets
As of 13 July, Gibraltar’s Prediction Market Regulations 2026 are in force, established under the Gambling Act 2025. These regulations require a separate authorization for prediction market operators and set specific standards concerning market integrity, client funds, anti-money laundering protocols, and digital asset transactions.
Prior to these regulations, ADI Predictstreet had already been licensed in the spring under previous gambling legislation. In April, Andrew Lyman told Gibraltar’s public broadcaster GBC that the ADI Predictstreet license originally issued under the 2005 Act had transitioned to the 2025 Act, emphasizing, “the speed of approval ‘does not mean lack of scrutiny’.”
Contrasting Regulatory Climate Across Europe
While Gibraltar opens doors, other European regulators are taking steps to limit prediction market activity. In June, gambling authorities from Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain, and Switzerland signed a unified declaration to take collective action against unlicensed prediction market platforms. Switzerland’s regulator, Gespa, criticized these platforms for lacking adequate controls against manipulation, insider trading, and money laundering, treating them as gambling under Swiss law and pledging to block access.
Additionally, Spain’s regulator acted against Polymarket and Kalshi in May.
Financial market regulators are scrutinizing event contracts as well. On July 3, the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) released a statement highlighting that some event contracts are classified as financial instruments, subject to existing retail binary options bans, while others may be covered by gambling or crypto-asset regulations depending on national law.
Market Access Remains Restricted
Feetham acknowledged that a Gibraltar-issued license does not automatically allow operators to serve users in markets treating prediction markets as unauthorized gambling or restricted financial products. The future impact of Gibraltar’s early move will rely on how other countries and the European Union ultimately categorize prediction markets.
Wiztech Group CEO Yoni Sidi commented in a July interview with European Gaming that Gibraltar’s license “matters more as a signal than as a passport” and “doesn’t give you access to France, Germany, the Netherlands or Sweden”. Sidi emphasized its value in enabling operators to establish a regulated track record in anticipation of broader regulatory decisions.
- Author
Daniel Williams
