Key Moments:
- Macau casino gross gaming revenue in September is projected to rise 13 percent year-on-year
- August GGR reached MOP 22.16 billion (US$2.76 billion), setting a post-pandemic record
- Premium mass segment remains robust, while base mass and VIP segments show mixed performance
August Records Set New Benchmark
Macau’s casino sector has demonstrated significant strength, as August results revealed gross gaming revenue of MOP 22.16 billion, or approximately US$2.76 billion. This marked a 12.2 percent jump from August 2024 and established a new peak since the global pandemic began, surpassing the previous high set in July. The momentum spurred analysts to upgrade projections, with expectations of sustained double-digit growth through the latter half of 2025.
Forecasts for September and Market Factors
Analysts from leading investment firms anticipate gross gaming revenue in September to increase by about 13 percent over the same month last year, although a modest pull-back from August’s record is expected. Deutsche Bank, for instance, anticipates revenue around US$2.45 billion—a decline of 11.2 percent from August but still a strong gain compared to September a year ago.
Seaport Research Partners echoes these forecasts, projecting a 13 percent year-on-year increase for September. However, they caution that adverse weather could pose challenges, as seen with last year’s typhoon interruptions. Their outlook suggests a monthly dip of roughly 12 percent compared to August.
| Month | GGR (MOP) | GGR (USD) | Year-on-Year Change | Month-on-Month Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 2024 | 22.16 billion | 2.76 billion | +12.2% | N/A |
| September (Projected) | N/A | 2.45 billion | +13% | -11.2% (vs August) |
Segment Analysis and Market Structure
The outlook for various market segments continues to vary. The premium mass market maintains notable momentum, acting as a key driver in Macau’s overall gaming revenue resurgence. While this segment thrives, the base mass market—including overnight regular visitors—remains relatively quiet. There are cautious signs that the mid-tier is starting to recover, helping to lift summer results together with the premium segment.
Year-to-date data shows total GGR at about 82 percent of the equivalent period in 2019. Mass market revenues have outpaced pre-pandemic levels by reaching roughly 119 percent of 2019, while VIP revenues lag behind at 21 percent. The premium mass segment is notably exceeding its 2019 figures, though base mass market performance remains slightly under.
Analyst Perspectives and Ongoing Upcycle
Analysts at JP Morgan point out that the Macau casino industry is firmly in an “upcycle,” citing favorable conditions and positive liquidity trends in the region, particularly in Hong Kong. The prevailing consensus is that these trends will continue to underpin the industry’s growth in gaming revenue in the near term.
Macau’s consistent gains highlight the resilience of its gaming sector as it navigates the path to recovery. Investors and industry stakeholders will keep a close watch on the performance of each market segment and potential external disruptions—such as weather—that could influence results heading into the year’s closing months.
- Author
Daniel Williams
