Key Moments:
- Caesars reduced its NFL Overround margins to just over 5.0%, the sharpest cut among major operators, resulting in increased Shading Time to 21.5%.
- Fanatics secured second place behind DraftKings for Uptime, while Hard Rock steadily closed the performance gap in both NFL and NCAA markets.
- BetRivers increased its NFL Overround to 7.9% in 2025, contrasting the industry movement toward tighter margins, and expanded its NCAA Overround to 8.2% despite a 17% Uptime improvement.
NFL Trading Sees Divergent Strategies
Recent research from Bettormetrics highlights that leading sportsbooks continue to deploy widely different trading approaches during the 2025 NFL early season. Caesars initiated the most substantial margin cut among top operators, bringing its Overround to just above 5.0%. However, this move correlated with a notable rise in Shading Time, which grew to 21.5% and signals increased exposure to market risk. In contrast, BetRivers stood out for its elevated Overround, reaching 7.9% in 2025 – a half-point above its previous year’s figures, diverging from the ongoing industry push for tighter margins.
Fanatics and Hard Rock made distinct progress on availability, with Fanatics achieving the second-highest Uptime ranking, just behind DraftKings. Hard Rock continued to narrow its performance gap relative to leading firms, as both challenger brands made gains in their head-to-head competition with established market leaders.
Operator Performance Metrics Comparison
| Operator | 2025 NFL Overround | Uptime | Shading Time | Notable Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caesars | Just over 5.0% | – | 21.5% | Sharp margin reduction; rising risk exposure |
| BetRivers | 7.9% | – | – | Highest margin contrasted to industry |
| Fanatics | – | 2nd highest, after DraftKings | – | Significant availability improvement |
| Hard Rock | – | Improvement, closing leadership gap | – | Consistent gains versus incumbents |
Contrarian Approaches and Market Leaders
bet365 continues to employ a contrarian strategy by combining the lowest Green Time with high Shading Time. This positioning, enabled by bet365’s global in-play trading expertise, results in frequent periods where its odds deviate from the broader market. DraftKings remains the standard-setter for both Uptime and Green Time, demonstrating an ability to maximize open market availability while maintaining profitable odds relative to their competitors.
NCAA Football: Improvement and Trade-Offs
The NCAA football betting landscape exhibited notable improvements, although it still falls behind NFL market standards. DraftKings strengthened its market hold, while BetRivers accomplished a 17% Uptime increase and secured the second-lowest Shading Time metric. However, BetRivers also widened its NCAA Overround to 8.2%, presenting challenges in pricing perception compared to peers. bet365’s stance remained firm, posting a nearly 25% Shading Time – solidifying its status as an outlier with aggressive trading both in NCAA and NFL betting.
Challenger brands in the NCAA segment, such as Fanatics and Hard Rock, pursued different paths: Fanatics raised its Uptime, accompanied by an increase in Shading Time, whereas Hard Rock managed to enhance Uptime and reduce Shading Time simultaneously, illustrating their distinct strategies for expanding market share.
Market Structure and Competitive Analysis
Bettormetrics’ data indicates that NCAA betting trails the NFL by over 10% in average Uptime across operators. NFL markets benefit from official data and widespread popularity, resulting in superior Uptime, tighter Overrounds, and increased operator assurance in market-making. Advancements in NCAA football, including expanded playoff formats and more high-profile matches, present sportsbooks with new growth opportunities but also demand advanced trading approaches.
BetMGM demonstrated stable progress, maintaining reliability and leveraging strong casino cross-selling, but did not achieve breakthroughs in trading innovation.
Industry Perspectives
“Football is where US sportsbooks really live or die, so these shifts in trading performance really matter. DraftKings remains peerless on Uptime and pricing integrity, while FanDuel has carved out success with its solid margin profile. However, beneath that duopoly we’re seeing challenger brands adjust tactics – some tightening margins, others improving availability – as they look to close the gap.”
– Sabin Brooks, Chief Revenue Officer at Bettormetrics
“What makes this data fascinating is that improvement in one area often comes with trade-offs elsewhere. Caesars’ lower Overround looks good on paper, but it coincided with higher Shading Time. BetRivers, conversely, improved availability but allowed its margins to widen. It just goes to show how delicate the balancing act is when trading America’s most important sports.”
– Alfie Arrand, Sports Trading Analyst at Bettormetrics
Bettormetrics Methodology
Bettormetrics analyzes thousands of live sports betting events each week to deliver actionable intelligence, helping operators address trading deficiencies that can affect revenue and profitability in America’s top sports betting markets.
- Author
Daniel Williams
