Key Moments:
- Trump Media and Technology Group Corp. (TMTG) has announced Truth Predict, a prediction market offering inside Truth Social.
- TMTG and Crypto.com have entered into an agreement involving $105 million in Cronos and a $50 million investment in TMTG stock.
- Truth Predict will begin with a beta rollout, and then expand to a full national launch across all 50 states.
Truth Predict Launches on Truth Social
Trump Media and Technology Group Corp. has entered the prediction market arena by introducing Truth Predict. This offering will allow users of Truth Social to engage in trading event contracts across various topics, starting with political and economic forecasts and later expanding to sports and global events. Crypto.com will power the infrastructure for these markets.
According to Trump Media CEO Devin Nunes, “We are thrilled to become the world’s first publicly traded social media platform to offer users access to prediction markets,” Nunes stated. “Truth Predict will allow our loyal users to engage in prediction markets while harnessing our platform to provide unique ways to discuss and compare their predictions.”
Product Rollout and Regulatory Considerations
TMTG intends to initiate a beta launch of Truth Predict in the coming weeks, with a plan to soon make the offering available nationwide. The first phase will focus on political and economic events. Later, the product will expand into sports and global markets — areas that could draw attention from gambling and derivatives regulators.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will likely oversee this sector. This comes after Trump nominated Michael Selig — formerly Chief Counsel for the SEC’s Crypto Task Force — as the new CFTC Chair.
Expanded Collaboration with Crypto.com
The partnership deepens the relationship established in August, which saw the launch of a digital rewards initiative for Truth Social users. Under the latest agreement, users can exchange loyalty points for Cronos (CRO), Crypto.com’s proprietary digital asset, to participate directly in event contract trading.
| Party | Investment/Transaction |
|---|---|
| Trump Media | $105 million purchase of Cronos |
| Crypto.com | $50 million investment in Trump Media stock |
Crypto.com CEO Kris Marszalek commented, “Prediction markets are poised to be a multi-deca-billion dollar industry. We’re thrilled to combine with Truth Social to support the world’s first prediction markets available from a social media platform.”
Regulatory and Competitive Landscape
Recent developments have increased regulatory scrutiny over sports event contracts. The Nevada Gaming Control Board (NGCB) recently directed Crypto.com to stop offering sports prediction products in the state, determining these products fall under Nevada’s wagering statutes. Because Judge Andrew Gordon denied its injunction, Crypto.com chose to remove its sports event contracts from Nevada.
Truth Predict enters a competitive landscape. It joins Polymarket and Kalshi, two rivals that have also faced major regulatory hurdles in the U.S. Analysts indicate that integrating prediction markets within a social media platform could potentially shape how larger industry operators address the sector.
Trump’s Role and CFTC Dynamics
Donald Trump’s influence in the prediction market industry extends beyond TMTG. Donald Trump Jr. acts as an advisor to both Kalshi and Polymarket, two significant players, although he reportedly holds no position with Crypto.com.
Trump’s ongoing involvement in the appointment of CFTC leadership also impacts the regulatory framework. Trump withdrew his first nominee, Brian Quintenz, after public backlash. Eventually, Congress confirmed Mike Selig as the new nominee.
Currently, only one commissioner — Caroline Pham — runs the CFTC as acting chair. The agency is statutorily mandated to maintain five commissioners, and Pham has indicated she will resign once a permanent chair is established.
Nunes added, “For too long, global elites have closely controlled these markets. With Truth Predict, we’re democratising information and empowering everyday Americans to turn free speech into actionable foresight.”
- Author
Daniel Williams
