Key Moments:
- The ORACLE Act proposes to ban most event-based prediction markets for New York users, with few exceptions for broad outcomes.
- Consumer protections include a 21-year age minimum, self-exclusion requirements, and a ban on credit card deposits for permitted platforms.
- Violations could result in civil fines up to $1 million per day, with enforcement actions led by the state attorney general.
Legislative Proposal Targets Prediction Market Operations
A new bill introduced in the New York State Assembly, titled the Oversight and Regulation of Activity for Contracts Linked to Events (ORACLE) Act, seeks to establish strict definitions and limitations for speculative markets based on future events such as sports, politics, and other categories. Assembly Bill 9251 would greatly restrict the ability of platforms to offer event-based prediction products to New York users.
Scope of the Proposed Ban
The ORACLE Act would prohibit New York residents from opening speculative positions on prediction markets related to catastrophic events, political results, deaths, securities, and individual sports contests. The legislation stands out for its broad definitions, but it does allow certain exceptions—specifically, markets tied to the overall winner of a sports tournament would still be permissible. More granular markets, including those based on particular matches or even single plays, would be disallowed.
Additional consumer safeguards are also proposed. These include enforcing a minimum user age of 21, offering mandatory self-exclusion options, providing visible access to responsible gambling hotlines, and ensuring transparency about how market outcomes are determined. In a move to mitigate risky behavior, the bill would also ban both credit card deposits and gift certificate purchases related to prediction platforms.
JUST IN: New York bill would severely curtail prediction markets by banning PMs on sporting events, ban market makers, require RG safeguards, and raise minimum age to 21. Would empower AG to impose $50K/violation and $1m/day civil penalties and obtain 2x disgorgement of profits. pic.twitter.com/FLCJSdgcNH
— Daniel Wallach (@WALLACHLEGAL) November 8, 2025
Advertising and Industry Collaboration Limits
To address marketing practices, the ORACLE Act would forbid advertising to those under 21 and prohibit the use of language such as “risk-free” in promotional materials. Push notifications encouraging bonuses or participation in new markets—if not directly solicited by the user—would not be allowed. The legislation requires responsible gambling messaging to be present in all advertisements for their entire runtime.
The act would also block partnerships between prediction market operators and businesses involved in gaming or liquidity services, apparently as a way to prevent direct ties between sportsbook operators and event-based prediction services. Companies like DraftKings and FanDuel, both publicly associated with developing similar products, could be directly affected by these restrictions.
Enforcement and Potential Penalties
The proposed law includes substantial penalties for violations. Civil fines could be as high as $10,000 for each infraction, rising to $50,000 for repeat offenses. The state attorney general would be empowered to obtain injunctions against non-compliant platforms, with daily fines of up to $1 million for ongoing breaches.
The ORACLE Act is designed to differentiate between prediction markets, traditional gambling, and securities trading, while introducing new safeguards for consumers in digital speculative spaces. However, some have criticized the measure as potentially inhibiting growth and innovation within this sector.
Review Process
The bill is currently being evaluated by the Standing Committee on Consumer Affairs and Protection in the New York State Assembly.
| Provision | Details |
|---|---|
| Banned Market Types | Catastrophic events, political outcomes, deaths, securities, individual sports and event results |
| Allowed Market Types | Overall sports tournament winners |
| Consumer Protection Measures | 21+ age limit, self-exclusion tools, disclosure of settlement sources, gambling hotline visibility |
| Financial Restrictions | No credit card deposits or gift certificate sales |
| Advertising Restrictions | No targeting under 21, ban on “risk-free”, responsible gambling messages required |
| Penalties | Up to $10,000 per violation, $50,000 for repeat violations, up to $1 million per day for ongoing non-compliance |
| Enforcement Authority | New York State attorney general |
- Author
Daniel Williams
