Key Moments:
- November recorded higher-than-expected gaming activity, extending post-Golden Week momentum in Macau
- Macau’s gross gaming revenue for the first ten months of 2025 reached MOP 205.4 billion, already ninety percent of the full-year government target
- Premium-mass and VIP segments saw notable year-on-year increases in both player numbers and average wagers in November
Gaming Revenue Surpasses Analyst Forecasts
Macau’s casino industry has sustained a phase of unexpectedly robust performance, with November results exceeding analyst predictions and building on October’s post-Golden Week momentum. Current indicators have bolstered optimism that the city could meet or even outperform its 2025 gross gaming revenue (GGR) objective.
The gaming sector’s resilience was already evident in October, which saw GGR grow sixteen percent year-on-year compared to CreditSights’ projected twelve percent. This propelled total GGR for January through October 2025 to MOP 205.4 billion (€22.6 billion), representing an eight percent annual increase and coming in at ninety percent of Macau’s full-year government target. Observers believe the market is primed for a strong close to the year, driven in large part by steady mass-market engagement.
Tourism Fuels Expansion But Per Capita Spend Softens
Tourism activity has played a pivotal role in boosting Macau’s casino sector. Visitor arrivals in October climbed eleven percent year-on-year, supported by increased travel from mainland China and ongoing recovery in international tourism. Meanwhile, GGR per visitor improved five percent to MOP 6,936 (approximately €763), pointing to continued premium-mass strength.
However, a wider view reveals a slight shift in spending patterns. Between January and October 2025, total visitor numbers grew fourteen percent year-on-year, but GGR per visitor dipped five percent to MOP 6,198 (around €682). The data suggests the recent growth is being stimulated more by higher tourist numbers than increasing individual spend. A similar dynamic appeared in non-gaming metrics, where total non-gaming revenue advanced eleven percent in the third quarter, but non-gaming spending per capita declined three percent to MOP 1,950 (about €214), indicating a more restrained approach to discretionary spending.
November Results Surpass Typical Seasonal Trends
Historically a subdued period, November saw Macau’s gaming market defy seasonal expectations. Citigroup’s mid-month proprietary table survey registered higher-than-expected activity across both mass and premium-mass gaming segments. Total wagers amounted to HK$14.4 million (about €1.73 million), a nineteen percent increase over November 2024, reflecting enduring player enthusiasm even without major holiday demand.
| Segment | Year-on-Year Change (November) | 2025 Figures | 2024 Comparison |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premium-mass Players | +5% | 540 players | – |
| Average Premium-mass Wager | +13% | HK$26,754 (€3,210) | – |
| VIP Players | +41% | 31 players | 22 players |
| Average VIP Wager | – | HK$216,000 (€25,900) | – |
| Grind-mass Baccarat Min. Bet | +5% | HK$2,112 (€253) | – |
Premium-mass player participation stood out with a year-on-year increase of five percent to 540, and the average premium-mass wager climbed thirteen percent to HK$26,754 (€3,210), even surpassing performance during Chinese New Year 2025. Grind-mass stability was also noted, as baccarat minimums rose five percent to HK$2,112 (€253).
Citigroup continues to anticipate November GGR at MOP 20.5 billion (€2.26 billion), marking an eleven percent annual jump. In the VIP segment, thirty-one high-rollers participated compared with twenty-two in the prior year, with their average wager reaching HK$216,000 (€25,900), signaling improving liquidity in the top tier of the market.
2025 Outlook Remains Strong
Macau’s momentum after the Golden Week appears to have held firm through November. Strong results in mass-market, steady grind-mass activity, and a significant boost in premium-mass and VIP business continue to enhance expectations for a solid finish to 2025, as well as a stable recovery path heading into 2026.
- Author
Daniel Williams
