Key Moments:
- Robinhood revealed plans to purchase a 90% share of MIAXdx, with MIAX retaining 10% ownership
- The transaction is expected to conclude in the first quarter of 2026, pending regulatory and closing requirements
- Robinhood stated over 9 billion prediction contracts have been traded by more than 1 million customers since product launch
Robinhood Embraces Direct Exchange Infrastructure
Robinhood has announced a decisive move into prediction and derivatives markets, unveiling an agreement to acquire a 90% equity position in MIAXdx. MIAXdx, operated by Miami International Holdings (MIAX), is an established and regulated derivatives exchange and clearinghouse. Under the terms of the agreement, MIAX will maintain a 10% stake, ensuring continued involvement in the platform’s direction and future growth. The completion of this acquisition remains subject to typical closing conditions and regulatory approval, with a projected closing date in the first quarter of 2026.
This acquisition positions Robinhood to launch a dedicated futures and derivatives exchange, expanding its product offering by providing prediction-market products directly to users through its interface.
Transitioning from Partnerships to Platform Ownership
Historically, Robinhood users have accessed event-driven contracts – such as those involving politics, sports, and macroeconomic indicators – through partnerships with third-party exchanges. The company’s latest strategy, including a joint venture with Susquehanna International Group as initial liquidity provider, signals a shift toward full operational control.
By owning both listing and clearing functions, Robinhood will gain more direct oversight of exchange operation, contract creation, and risk management. Vertical integration of these capabilities could strengthen its position in the competitive but expanding prediction-market sector.
Robinhood identified prediction markets as its fastest-growing source of revenue, reporting that upwards of 9 billion contracts have been executed by more than 1 million customers since launch.
Not even a month later, Robinhood vertically integrating its prediction market offering through a JV w/ Susquehanna
> Acquiring MIAXdx (a DCM/DCO/SEF) to be its own exchange, route flow to itself, and fix the gnarly UX issues w/ fees https://t.co/Pr7Now9Bu9 pic.twitter.com/MPcHHGF3Nm— Omar (@TheOneandOmsy) November 26, 2025
Timeline and Exchange Launch Details
Plans call for launching the new derivatives exchange in 2026. MIAXdx holds licenses from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a Designated Contract Market (DCM) and a Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO), allowing the exchange to accelerate its go-to-market strategy without starting from scratch.
Susquehanna’s participation as the principal liquidity and market-making partner, combined with MIAX’s retained equity interest, provides a strong operational and risk-mitigation foundation for the platform’s introduction.
Diversified Product Roadmap
Robinhood has outlined a vision to extend beyond traditional sports or political event betting. The roadmap includes contracts based on macroeconomic data, official reports such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), interest-rate announcements, and sports outcomes. By doing so, the platform aims to attract not only bettors but also investors looking to hedge or speculate on global events.
| Aspect | Details |
|---|---|
| Stake Acquirer | Robinhood |
| Stake Seller | MIAX (Miami International Holdings) |
| Equity Acquired | 90% in MIAXdx |
| Equity Retained | 10% by MIAX |
| Closing Timeline | First quarter of 2026 (subject to conditions and regulatory approvals) |
| Initial Liquidity Partner | Susquehanna International Group |
Implications for the Broader Market
This initiative highlights a shifting perspective on prediction markets, viewing them less as a gray-area activity and more as regulated financial instruments available to a wider customer base. Robinhood’s entrance, underpinned by a regulated exchange and clearing infrastructure, could challenge smaller industry participants who lack comparable resources or licenses.
For investors and institutional players, the arrival of these new products could introduce risk management tools tied to macroeconomic, geopolitical, or other real-world outcomes, broadening the application of derivatives.
“Following the announcement, shares of Robinhood (HOOD) rose, reflecting investor confidence in the company’s ability to monetize prediction markets.”
MIAX’s decision to keep involvement through a minority stake provides ongoing access to a rapidly growing opportunity, complementing its overall business of developing and managing financial exchanges.
Key Risks and Future Outlook
As Robinhood advances toward launching its derivatives exchange, several industry risks are in focus:
- Regulatory scrutiny—Even with CFTC licensure, questions remain around how new types of event-based contracts, including those touching on elections or sensitive events, will be received by regulators.
- Market stability—High speculation can expose the exchange to volatility and liquidity risks, with Susquehanna’s involvement offering but not guaranteeing mitigation.
- User safeguards—The introduction of complex financial products to retail clients raises the need for sufficient risk disclosure, educational support, and responsible trading measures.
- Competitive pressures—Fragmented liquidity and offerings by newer, potentially less-regulated contenders may impact the growth or credibility of regulated platforms.
The success of Robinhood’s strategy will depend on its management of these challenges as prediction markets expand into more mainstream financial territory. Should the company navigate these dynamics effectively, it may legitimize and popularize a new segment of financial trading. However, increased regulatory, ethical, or market-related tensions could hamper growth or advantage less-regulated competitors.
Looking Ahead
Robinhood’s acquisition of MIAXdx and partnership with Susquehanna positions the firm to move from simply distributing third-party prediction contracts to running its own exchange. Success could result in a more accessible, regulated, and diversified trading environment for both individual and institutional market participants.
2026 may become a pivotal year, as prediction markets potentially transition from niche status to a regular feature of retail and institutional trading activity in the United States.
- Author
Daniel Williams
