Key Moments:
- A regulator-commissioned study estimates that 77.03% of German online gambling in 2024 occurred through licensed operators
- Unregulated online gambling’s market share is calculated at 22.97%, representing around €547m in 2024
- Survey results indicate licensed brands dominate player spending, despite the presence of many unlicensed platforms
Regulator Commissioned Study Quantifies Market Share
According to a recent survey initiated by Germany’s national gambling regulator, the Gemeinsame Glücksspielbehörde der Länder (GGL), nearly four-fifths of online gambling spending in the country is now directed through licensed businesses. Conducted by Blockchain Research Lab, the study measures the unregulated market share at 22.97%, with licensed operators achieving a channelisation rate of 77.03%.
The study suggests that Germany’s illegal online gambling segment was worth about €547m in 2024. Compiled from an online survey of 2,000 participants who had engaged in online betting, poker, or casino play within the previous year, the findings support the regulator’s perspective on current market dynamics.
“The scientifically calculated channelisation rate confirms our previous assumptions about the extent of the black market,” GGL chair Ronald Benter said in the regulator’s press release.
Market Snapshot: Legal vs. Illegal Operators
The study comes amid ongoing debate about the scope and risks of the country’s unlicensed gambling market. For months, operators and trade groups have contended that tight restrictions on stakes, deposits, and advertising are driving customers to offshore platforms.
A prior statement by the German Sports Betting Association in the previous autumn highlighted a stark disparity, observing 382 illegal German-language sports betting sites compared with just 34 legal ones. “Online, it’s 11:1 in favour of the black market and that puts players at risk,” said DSWV president Mathias Dahms.
However, the GGL’s new study acknowledges the large number of unlicensed sites, noting that 74.6% of identified brands in the survey were unregulated. Nevertheless, these sites captured only 20.3% of total mentions, while licensed operators were responsible for 79.7%. This indicates that, although the unregulated sector remains crowded, consumer spending predominantly flows toward licensed platforms.
A summary of identified operators and market share, based on survey results, is provided below:
| Category | % of Distinct Operators | % of Total Mentions |
|---|---|---|
| Licensed | 25.4% | 79.7% |
| Unlicensed | 74.6% | 20.3% |
Differing Methodologies Fuel Ongoing Dispute
Past analyses have contributed to heated discussion regarding the actual size of the black market. Previous studies used various benchmarks, including web traffic and tax data, producing lower estimated channelisation rates. For example, an industry-funded report placed the channelisation rate at 50.7% in March 2023. The most recent study contends that metrics based solely on visits do not accurately capture the sums wagered or lost.
Despite advances in market share for licensed operators, the unauthorized segment remains significant. The report calculated unlicensed offerings represented 22.4% of stakes and 22.97% of player losses, with higher average spend among those frequenting illegal websites.
Public Revenues and Regulatory Direction
Licensed online gambling continues to generate notable tax revenue in Germany. Recent figures show that legal operators contributed €2.5bn in gambling taxes in 2025. Growth in sports betting and online casino activity combined to deliver a robust fourth quarter, making up for a slightly lower annual performance.
The GGL’s leadership signals a desire for intensified enforcement rather than eased regulations. “Our measures will also be reflected in market shares in the medium term,” Benter said. “The fight against illegal online gambling is, however, a marathon, not a sprint.”
Preparing for the 2026 Interstate Gambling Treaty Review
Germany will soon undertake a comprehensive reassessment of its 2021 Interstate Gambling Treaty by the end of 2026, with the black market’s scope a central topic. Operators advocate for a more accessible legal market, while regulatory bodies argue that consumer safety cannot be compromised to combat unregulated competition.
According to the report, rules such as deposit ceilings and stake limits may undermine the competitive position of licensed operators. However, it cautions that strategies to reduce illegal gambling should not erode player protections. The recommended approach emphasizes stricter action against illegal providers, rather than relaxing existing safeguards.
Conclusion
With this latest research, the German regulator has placed renewed emphasis on the dominance of licensed operators in the online gambling market, even as the illegal sector continues to influence industry policy and future regulation.
- Author
Daniel Williams
