Key Moments:
- Gambling tax revenue in New South Wales is projected to climb from $3.8 billion in 2025-26 to $4.7 billion by 2029-30
- Pokies in pubs and hotels are on track to generate approximately $2.2 billion in tax revenue by 2029-30, up from $1.6 billion in the current year
- Key recommendations on cashless gaming and account-based systems remain pending, despite expert and regulatory advice
Forecasts Signal Growing Financial Reliance on Gambling
The latest New South Wales budget papers reveal that gambling tax revenue is on track to post sharp gains over the next four years. Projections show revenue climbing from $3.8 billion in 2025-26 to $4.7 billion by 2029-30. A significant share of this expansion is attributed to poker machines, with earnings from pokies in pubs and hotels poised to outpace inflation during this period.
Treasury estimates suggest that taxes collected from poker machines in hotels and pubs will reach roughly $2.2 billion by the end of the projection, up from about $1.6 billion this financial year. This trajectory has led to criticism that the state government is relying more heavily on gambling-derived revenue, despite earlier signals of planned reforms.
| Financial Year | Total Gambling Tax Revenue | Pokies Revenue (Hotels & Pubs) |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | $3.8 billion | $1.6 billion |
| 2029-30 | $4.7 billion | $2.2 billion |
Political Scrutiny Intensifies as Reform Lags
The government’s original reform commitments, made during the election campaign, have come under renewed examination in light of these forecasts. Prior to the 2023 election, Premier Chris Minns had publicly backed efforts to reduce poker machine numbers and endorsed cashless gaming technology trials. However, much of this agenda remains unresolved.
Treasurer Daniel Mookhey has stated that the current budget estimates reflect policies as they stand, emphasizing that Treasury has not projected possible revenue changes stemming from potential reforms. He asserted that the forecasts are anchored in current regulations.
For critics, such as Tim Costello, chief advocate for the Alliance for Gambling Reform, the increasing revenue from gambling taxes is a sign that the government’s commitment to reducing gambling harm is wavering. In his view, “the budget numbers reveal a state increasingly comfortable collecting money from gambling losses while delaying major changes recommended by regulators and experts.”
Reform Recommendations Await Government Action
A trial of cashless gaming concluded in 2024, yet the state has not committed to rolling out the technology statewide, despite support from the NSW Crime Commission for its potential to limit gambling harm and counter money laundering. Alongside this, an independent gaming reform panel submitted a report containing 30 recommendations, such as establishing a statewide account-based gaming system, but a formal government response remains outstanding after more than six months.
This lack of progress has heightened frustration among anti-gambling groups, who argue that the government’s reform momentum has lost steam.
Losses on Pokies Continue to Escalate
Recent research from Wesley Mission estimates gamblers in New South Wales could lose over $10 billion playing poker machines in 2026. The data suggests that growth in gaming-related losses is most prominent in hotels and pubs, with operators achieving increased earnings despite limits on machine numbers.
Treasury forecasts support these findings, projecting that revenue from pokies in pubs and hotels will rise by about 8 percent annually through 2027-28. Meanwhile, growth at registered clubs is expected to be more moderate. Wesley Mission CEO Stu Cameron relates this long-term growth to changes made since the late 1990s, when poker machines were introduced to hotels and pubs, enabling operators to fine-tune models that maximized profits.
Tax Concessions Remain a Focal Point
Tax concessions granted to clubs—but not to hotel operators—are estimated to cost New South Wales over $1 billion in the current financial year. This arrangement has sparked criticism from those who argue it undermines official reform efforts. Greens MP Cate Faehrmann pointed to the continued support for large clubs via subsidies and tax benefits, highlighting the persistence of gambling harm across the state.
Labor Faces Internal and External Pressure
Within the governing party, attention is building ahead of the upcoming NSW Labor conference. Some members, particularly from the left faction, are expected to call for a reduction of at least 45,000 poker machines over the next ten years. With New South Wales currently home to nearly 90,000 machines—about half of Australia’s total—this proposal would mark one of the most ambitious targets seen since Labor’s return to office.
Government Defends Current Measures
Premier Chris Minns and his government have rejected allegations of inaction. During recent parliamentary sessions, Minns highlighted a range of steps already taken: reducing the statewide poker machine cap, cutting hundreds of exemptions to overnight shutdown rules, and dropping cash input limits on new machines from $5,000 to $500, effective July.
A government spokesperson said, “ministers continue to assess the costs and practical challenges associated with broader gaming reforms while considering the impact on an industry that supports more than 150,000 workers across the state.”
Despite these reassurances, critics and industry observers indicate that attention will focus on whether further substantive reforms are put in place going forward. For now, budget data indicates a sustained upward trend in gambling revenue, with state financial planning adjusting accordingly.
- Author
Daniel Williams
