Key Moments:
- The ANJ’s new detection tool identified 600,000 players likely to be problem gamblers in the second half of 2025, representing 8.7% of the registered player base.
- These players generated €1.2 billion in gross gaming revenue, accounting for 60% of total GGR—a figure that has steadily increased since 2023.
- Operators identified 89,000 problem gamblers in 2025, but this number remains far below the estimated total flagged by the ANJ’s algorithm.
Regulatory Findings Reveal Heavy Revenue Dependence on Problem Gamblers
The French gambling authority, Autorité Nationale des Jeux (ANJ), has released data indicating a significant reliance of the country’s gambling sector on high-risk players. Using an algorithmic detection system in the second half of 2025, the ANJ found that 600,000 individuals, equating to 8.7% of France’s online gambling player base, are highly likely to be problem gamblers. These users generated €1.2 billion in gross gaming revenue (GGR), amounting to 60% of the industry’s total GGR. The ANJ highlighted that this concentration has climbed steadily since 2023 and that the growth rate of problem gamblers surpasses that of the overall gambling population—a trend not wholly accounted for by general market expansion.
Algorithmic Insights and Methodology
The detection tool, introduced from 2024 onwards, leverages player account data collected from licensed operators such as La Française des Jeux (FDJ) and Pari Mutuel Urbain (PMU). It assesses 23 different risk indicators, covering areas like financial transactions, frequency of gambling activity, usage of gambling moderators, and player activity history. The tool then segments players into four categories: recreational, moderate-risk, excessive, and clearly excessive. Validation was conducted using the Canadian Problem Gambling Index (CPGI), under the overview of a scientific committee of recognized researchers. While similar capabilities are in development in Spain and the Netherlands, ANJ’s platform is the first operational tool of its kind in Europe.
Importantly, the regulator clarified that the algorithm does not purport to capture the absolute number of problem gamblers but functions within the context of account-based gambling. Operators may use the algorithm as an optional compliance benchmark alongside their own detection practices.
| Year/Period | Estimated Problem Gamblers | % of Registered Players | Problem Gambler-Generated GGR (€) | Share of Total GGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Second half of 2025 | 600,000 | 8.7% | 1,200,000,000 | 60% |
Gap Between Operator Reports and Actual Numbers
ANJ’s review of operator prevention plans observed that the number of player identifications by operators rose threefold, from 31,000 in 2024 to 89,000 in 2025. Despite this significant increase, the identified total remains substantially below the 600,000 estimated by ANJ’s algorithm. The new technological benchmark now allows for objective measurement and comparison of detection efforts, addressing longstanding inconsistencies between operator-reported figures and prevalence research.
ANJ chair Isabelle Falque-Pierrotin described the launch of this algorithm as a “decisive step” and emphasized the tool’s value beyond survey data: ‘In addition to survey data, the algorithm helps to objectively assess the efforts required to identify problem gamblers, whom operators must take immediate action [to] support.’ She also underscored the necessity to expand identification efforts beyond online gambling to physical outlets, a goal the regulator has pressed operators to pursue since 2024.
Market Implications and International Perspective
The ANJ’s decision to release detailed data on the concentration of gambling revenue among problem gamblers has prompted international interest. As Professor Sally Gainsbury of the University of Sydney commented: ‘Is it sustainable when a significant share of revenue is concentrated in a small group of highly involved people? How comfortable should governments and communities be with this?’ Gainsbury also praised the ANJ for its transparency, stating: ‘This kind of transparency is what good regulation looks like,’ and underlined the need for honest conversations about market concentration and the thresholds regulators and society are prepared to accept.
Regulatory compliance specialist Monique Bielanowski also weighed in, noting: ‘The problem has been that a lot of the commentary that gets media airplay is on the extremes of views (prohibition of gambling v let it rip), rather than hearing from the more balanced voices that understand the value of a sustainable industry that isn’t reliant on those engaging in harmful gambling.’ She further emphasized that new evidence offers a basis to define policy intervention points: ‘There is some pretty good data out there now which can inform the parameters for policy design that shows when gambling starts to seep from enjoyment into higher risk activity.’
Outlook and Regulatory Next Steps
The ANJ expects that operators will soon be able to identify the approximately 300,000 players flagged as clearly excessive, with the longer-term aim of recognizing the full estimated number of 600,000 problem gamblers. The regulator’s 2027 action plan review will, for the first time, directly compare operator-reported identification numbers to the algorithm’s estimates, establishing a new backbone for accountability. As Spain and the Netherlands work to develop similar analytical tools, France’s approach is positioned as a reference for international regulators seeking to address revenue dependence and gambling harm on a broad scale.
- Author
Daniel Williams
