Key Moments:
- In 2024, more than $3.6 billion was traded on Polymarket’s US presidential election market
- Political betting is established in Great Britain, Ireland, and Italy, but not permitted in Germany, France, the Netherlands, and Portugal
- As of September 17, 2026, neither Polymarket nor Kalshi holds a license in any European jurisdiction
Overview of Political Betting in Europe
In recent years, Europe’s political betting landscape has become increasingly prominent, highlighted by significant market activity in 2024 when over $3.6 billion changed hands on Polymarket’s US presidential election market. However, the regulation and availability of political gambling options in Europe remain fragmented, with each nation adopting its own approach to oversight and authorized betting categories.
Political betting can be accessed through traditional sportsbooks offering fixed-odds and through betting exchanges, which enable users to bet against one another. Other platforms, such as prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, allow trading of event contracts based on future political events, although their legal standing varies widely across jurisdictions.
Regulatory Differences by Country
The legal framework for political betting in Europe is highly country-specific, as shown below:
| Country | Is political betting regulated? | Regulator | Key restrictions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Great Britain | Yes | United Kingdom Gambling Commission (UKGC) | Licensed operators can offer political markets; non-sport betting is permitted; operators must comply with integrity and insider information rules |
| Ireland | Yes | Gambling Regulatory Authority of Ireland (GRAI) | Remote and in-person operators need a GRAI license; as of February 2026, a new licensing framework applies |
| Germany | No | Gemeinsame Glücksspielbehörde der Länder (GGL) | Political betting is classified as Gesellschaftswetten and is not licensable; offering, facilitating, or promoting is unlawful |
| France | No | Autorité Nationale des Jeux (ANJ) | Only lotteries, sports betting, horse racing, and poker are permitted; political betting is not authorized; event contract platforms are considered illegal gambling services |
| Italy | Yes | Agenzia delle Dogane e dei Monopoli (ADM) | Political markets are included in the ADM’s fixed-odds framework; bets must be on ADM-authorized events |
| Netherlands | No | Kansspelautoriteit (KSA) | Online betting licenses limited to sporting events; political betting is not permitted |
| Portugal | No | Serviço de Regulação e Inspeção de Jogos (SRIJ) | Online betting mainly permitted for sports, horse racing, bingo, casino, and poker; political betting is not an authorized category |
How Political Betting Works
Political betting functions in a similar way to sports betting on licensed sportsbooks and exchanges. Bettors might select contracted markets such as “Next UK General Election – Overall Majority” and receive fixed odds, for example, 4/1 (5.00) for a party to win an overall majority. Bet outcomes are determined by real-world political events, and the selection of markets often includes leadership changes, election winners, and total seats won.
Betting exchanges in regions like the UK provide an alternative approach, where customers can set odds for each other, rather than competing against the house. This model is adopted by platforms such as Betfair Exchange and Smarkets.
Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to the occurrence of a specific event, with the market price reflecting its perceived likelihood. As of September 17, 2026, these markets are not widely licensed within continental Europe, except in Gibraltar, where ADI Predictstreet operates under a local intermediary license.
Access and Market Examples
Opportunities for political betting in Europe are determined by local regulations:
- Sportsbooks are the primary mechanism for political markets in the UK, Ireland, and Italy, often applying a 2–5% house margin.
- Betting exchanges allow the public to set and accept odds with a commission charged on winnings.
- Prediction markets provide trading of event contracts, but access is limited to jurisdictions which license these platforms; Polymarket and Kalshi are not licensed in any reviewed European country as of September 17, 2026, and have been blocked in several regions.
ADI Predictstreet, operating under a Gibraltar intermediary license, offers politics as a category alongside economics, finance, and current affairs. In Great Britain, political markets can also be found via Matchbook’s exchange license.
Comparing Platform Types
| Platform Type | Bet Structure | Odds Mechanism | Political Markets Available | Legal Status by Country |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sportsbook | Bet against bookmaker | Bookmaker sets decimal/fractional odds | Yes | Legal in UK, Ireland, Italy |
| Betting Exchange | Bet against other users | Odds determined by users; back/lay structure | Yes, if markets are available | Depends on jurisdiction |
| Prediction Market | Trade yes/no event contracts | Prices based on supply and demand | Yes | Licensed in Gibraltar; not authorized in other European countries for Polymarket and Kalshi as of September 17, 2026 |
Popular Political Betting Markets
A range of leading sportsbook platforms offer betting on political outcomes in countries including the UK, Ireland, the US, and Australia. The most widely available markets are for UK politics, featuring contests such as general elections, leadership transitions, and by-elections throughout the year. Irish operators, for example, list current markets like:
- Next General Election – Overall Majority
- Most Seats
- Holborn and St Pancras By-Election 2026
- Next Prime Minister after Andy Burnham
- Year Kemi Badenoch Replaced as Conservative Leader
- Year of Next UK General Election
- Next Permanent Reform UK Leader after Nigel Farage
- Next Conservative Leader and London Mayor after Sadiq Khan
- Author
Daniel Williams
